Iran war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint. Reopening it is a big challenge

PARIS (AP) — rising prices startling pain at gas pumps largely due to its effect. Iran war Open Strait of HormuzIt is a very important transit route for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. The narrow waterway off Iran’s coast, now effectively closed by war, is so vital to the global economy that governments are working on plans to quickly reopen it to shipping once the armed attacks end.

President of France in Europe Emmanuel Macron He is leading an international effort to open the energy gridlock so that oil, gas and goods can flow freely again “when conditions allow.” He predicts that in a period when conflicts are no longer so intense, countries will use warships to escort tankers and container ships through the strait.

Former naval officers who served on the passage of Hormuz and are familiar with its waters say that if foreign naval forces attempt to reopen the waterway before hostilities end, ships will be sitting ducks with little room to maneuver in the strait’s narrow shipping lanes.

“Sending warships or civilian ships to the Strait of Hormuz in today’s context would mean suicide,” retired French Navy Vice Admiral Pascal Ausseur said in an interview with The Associated Press.

He said that a ceasefire agreement with Iran would “take the situation from suicidal to dangerous. At this point, military ships can be deployed and then escort operations can begin.”

Let’s take a look at how Ormuz can be made navigable again:

Battle-hardened in the Red Sea

French, American, British and other naval teams already have valuable first-hand experience combating missiles and drones in the region. They escorted and defended cargo ships during attacks in the Red Sea. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

French frigates used machine guns, artillery and advanced air defense missiles to fend off Houthi attacks. The French frigate Alsace shot down three ballistic missiles in the Red Sea while escorting a container ship in 2024. The ship’s then-commander, Capt. Jérôme Henry, told the AP that being subjected to potentially lethal attacks was frustrating and exhausting. Naval battles too received a fee About US Navy ships and personnel.

“There have been repeated attacks with UAVs or missiles,” Henry said in an interview. “The crew didn’t get much sleep.”

French retired Vice Admiral Michel Olhagaray, former head of France’s higher center for military studies, says that “all navies have learned a lot about working together and escorting ships from Red Sea missions” while also drawing on Ukraine’s experience in fighting the war. Russian dams missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles during war of moscow.

“This will allow us to deploy to that region with a highly developed knowledge base and a high level of cooperation, and this is extremely important,” said Olhagaray, commander of a French frigate that patrolled the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

higher risks

Iran is militarily much better equipped than its Houthi proxies in Yemen. major damage and disruption In the Red Sea. Rebels armed by Iran targeted more than 100 merchant ships with missiles and drones, sinking two and killing four sailorsBetween November 2023 and January 2025, trade flows decreased greatly.

According to mapping by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, Iran can reach the entire Strait of Hormuz and its approaches with anti-ship cruise missiles developed with Chinese-made weapons. It can also target long-range missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, fast attack vehicles and ships with sea mines that it used during the Iran-Iraq war. WE Attack on Iranian mine-laying ships This latest conflict underscores the seriousness of this danger.

Olhagaray said the passage of Hormuz was “very, very dangerous” as the war raged and that shipping risks were “much greater” than against the Houthis in the Red Sea.

“The tools to counter this threat must be much more robust and much more effective,” he said. “Before the temperature cools down… most of the ground attack facilities in Iran need to be eliminated. There needs to be constant monitoring, patrols, extremely close surveillance and very high levels of intelligence to be able to say that it is possible to allow tankers to pass even with military escorts.”

“This will not happen at all in the near future.”

Trustworthy insurers

Another challenge will be to reassure marine insurers and companies that cruising in Hormuz waters is possible again, experts say. Insurance premiums for shipping in the Bosphorus have risen to levels that the French transport minister described as “crazy”, causing a “huge problem” for shippers.

“Maritime traffic is a business. This business has to make money. If insurance costs are so high that you cannot make a profit by passing through a certain region, then you cannot pass through that region. Ship owners will not operate at a loss,” said Ausseur, who is currently the director of the Mediterranean Strategic Research Foundation. a think tank.

Marcus Baker, global head of marine, cargo and logistics at insurance broker and risk consultant Marsh Risk, said insurance rates for oil tankers seeking to pass through Hormuz are orders of magnitude higher than before the war and are approaching levels charged for ships carrying grain from Ukraine during the ongoing war with Russia.

Potential naval escorts for merchant ships “would be helpful,” Baker said.

“This has been done before in past conflicts so this is not unusual and this will obviously give insurers a degree of confidence that the ships will have greater security,” he said.

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Mae Anderson in New York and Sylvie Corbet in Paris contributed to this report.