Iran war prediction market bets draw heat: ‘Insane this is legal’
Prediction markets face renewed scrutiny from federal lawmakers following bets on the fate of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a bombing raid on Iran on Saturday.
“It’s crazy that this is legal.” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.A post to X references another post highlighting people making money from the occupation. “People around Trump profit from war and death. I will introduce legislation to ban this as soon as possible.”
CNBC has reached out to Murphy’s office for more details on his proposal.
This comes as Gambling Is Not Investing, a new trade group led by President Donald Trump’s former acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, has been formed to put tighter barriers on prediction markets.
Other MPs also expressed concerns about prediction markets after the invasion. Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., said: In X this “[p]redaction markets cannot be a means of profiting from advance knowledge of military action.”
“We need answers, transparency and oversight,” Levin said.
New trade group Gambling is not an investment It targets another important market in the prediction field, sports markets.
In recent years, many states have attempted to pass sports betting laws, taking advantage of large tax revenues from betting to balance their budgets. Some states now allege that prediction markets, which are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and often offer betting odds on outcomes at sporting events, are encroaching on regulated sports betting sites.
“Gambling products — whatever you call them — must comply with established state and tribal laws,” Mulvaney said. “Rebranding sports betting as ‘trade,’ ‘investment,’ or ‘prediction’ misleads consumers, undermines responsible gaming protections, and undermines state and tribal systems built to protect the public and fund vital community services.”
Kalshi told CNBC that “markets do not allow it to be directly tied to death” regarding betting lines that have come under criticism over whether Khamenei will fall from power. The company refunded the market, citing regulations banning betting on death.
“We have incorporated every precaution into this market to make sure people cannot trade as a result of death,” the company said. “Our rules were clear from the beginning, we never changed them and we agreed to the rules. We refunded all fees and net losses because we thought the user experience could be more understandable for users.”
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour also responded directly to Murphy in a separate message. to mail“Regulated prediction markets are not allowed to make war markets,” he said.
“The market you published is unregulated and offshore,” Mansour said.
NPR reported that a user under the name exists on Polymarket, another prediction marketplace that is not yet operational in the United States. “Magamyman” was monetized For $553,000.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
