Iranians brace for U.S. strike while some dare to hope for regime change

TEHRAN — Battered by government repression, with the dead yet to be fully counted, reeling from last year’s 12-day conflict with Israel, and fed up with widespread economic malaise resulting from sanctions and corruption, Iranians now face the prospect of a new war, with emotions ranging from anger to anticipation, but most of all, exhaustion.

“These routine worries and concerns happen over and over again,” said Ali, a barber in Tehran who, like most of those interviewed, did not give his last name for fear of harassment.

“This whole thing feels like a pre-written script that took this long to unfold,” Ali said. “It’s not a nice feeling.”

The clock is ticking on Washington and Tehran’s latest diplomatic delay.

As the two sides continue negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman, the United States has assembled the largest military force in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

President Trump on Friday said he was considering a limited military strike to force the Islamic Republic to agree on its nuclear program and other issues.

“I think I can say I’m thinking about it,” he told reporters at the White House.

Such comments contribute to increased uneasiness in Iran. This photo is shared by Hoda, a 27-year-old art school graduate whose scholarship to Lisbon, Portugal, was derailed when the Portuguese Embassy closed during the 12-day war.

This conflict, in which Israel launched a campaign targeting Iran’s senior military echelons as well as its nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure, showed Hoda that “everyday life of ordinary people suffers, even if you only target military sites” and that preparations “are often pointless.”

That’s why he hasn’t bothered to stockpile supplies, and he maintains the hope – though admittedly faint – that negotiations will lead to an agreement.

“There are no winners in this war and even the chance of recovery would be ruined by any conflict,” he said.

“Whatever the outcome, this will be the worst possible scenario for ordinary people.”

Speaking on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal was “achievable” and “there is no military solution” to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran has repeatedly said it is developing nuclear energy, not weapons.

Earlier in the week, Araghchi said “good progress” had been made in the talks and that both sides had agreed on a framework.

However, it is clear that gaps remain.

US demands include ending Iran’s nuclear program, but it is not yet clear whether this means a complete halt to uranium enrichment and the neutralization of its missile arsenal. The United States also wants an end to Iran’s support for paramilitary groups such as Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.

But Iran insists the talks are strictly about its nuclear program.

“We are ready for diplomacy and we are ready for negotiation as much as we are ready for war,” Araghchi said. He added that previous US administrations and the current administration have tried war, sanctions and other measures against Tehran, but none of them have worked.

“If you speak to the Iranian people with the language of respect, we will respond with the same language,” he said. But if they speak to us with the language of power, we will respond with the same language.

The array of US forces off Iran’s coast – two carrier groups and an armada of dozens of warplanes – signals a weeks-long campaign that could destroy most of Iran’s military capabilities.

But it is doubtful whether this will make Tehran more resilient, let alone encourage regime change.

Demonstrators hold unofficial Iranian Lion and Sun flags and protest signs at a rally in support of regime change in Iran at Los Angeles City Hall on February 14.

(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)

“I do not think that a war initiated by Trump will deal a decisive blow that can topple the current ruling order,” said pro-government journalist Nader Karimi.

Another fear is that if the government survives the attack, it will redouble its efforts to brutally suppress dissent, just as it detained hundreds and executed dozens on espionage charges after the 12-day war.

Some Iranians hope that a limited strike would essentially repeat what happened in Venezuela, where US troops captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the rest of the government (now more pro-US) remained in place.

Former Iranian diplomat Feriadoun Majlesi said that once the strategic objectives and command structure were destroyed, “the remaining government officials will demand an end to the war and peaceful conditions.”

Others see conflict with the United States as an opportunity.

“Yes, I’m waiting and feeling anxious, but I’m trying to reassure myself that the future can be bright. I don’t think the Islamic Republic will survive this time,” said Ahmad, a 27-year-old barista who participated in the protests in January.

Stating that he always keeps canned food, frozen meals and aid materials at home, Ahmad said, “We are ready to go out on the streets again when the time comes.”

“I wish the war would only last a few weeks and only military targets and the Supreme Leader’s office would be hit. So who am I to decide which targets should be attacked?” he said. “Trump and his team know, maybe they don’t even know.

Rahimi, a 74-year-old tailor, said he is looking forward to Trump overthrowing the government. The rest of his family agrees.

“Why are we hoping for war? The oppressors are fully armed, brutally oppressing and killing us just because we, the protesters, have empty hands,” he said.

Estimates of the number of protesters killed by security forces in January vary widely.

The government’s official figure is about 3,000, but other groups say the number could be 10 times higher.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which relies on a network of activists in Iran and has produced accurate death tolls in previous rounds of uprisings, put the death toll at just over 7,000 but said about 12,000 cases were under investigation.

No matter the number, “we cannot forgive them,” Rahimi said.

“War will weaken the security and military power of the regime. There is no other way.”

Special correspondent Mostaghim reported from Tehran, and staff writer Bulos reported from Beirut.