Iran’s military is built to survive, not win a conventional war, analysts say

The Iranian military is not designed to win a conventional war against the United States or Israel. Experts say it is designed to survive these attacks, absorb the damage and continue fighting over time.

This strategy is reflected both in how the force was built and how it is currently performing after weeks of US and Israeli attacks.

The size of the campaign is quite large. According to the US Central Command fact sheet dated March 23, 2026, more than 9,000 targets have been hit since the launch of Operation Epic Fury; In addition, more than 9,000 combat flights, missile sites, air defenses, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Command Centers and weapons production facilities were hit.

NEXT MOVEMENT IN IRAN: CAPTURE KHARG ISLAND, SECURE THE URANIUM, OR RISK A GROUND WAR BATTLE

US officials say the target is clear.

“We are targeting and eliminating Iran’s ballistic missile systems…we are destroying the Iranian Navy…and ensuring that Iran cannot rebuild quickly,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said at a Pentagon briefing in March. he said.

But analysts warn that the picture is more complex.

“It’s a mixed bag,” Nicholas Carl, of the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank and deputy director of the Critical Threats Project, told Fox News Digital. “On the one hand, Iran’s military is badly degraded overall, but the regime still maintains a significant amount of capacity.”

INSIDE THE ISRAELI UAV UNIT IS WORKING AGAINST IRAN AND HIZBOLLA

‘Dual army’ was established to protect the regime

At the heart of Iran’s military system is a deliberate dual structure: the conventional army, known as Artesh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a parallel force created to protect the regime after the 1979 revolution.

According to Carl, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has for decades shaped the armed forces around one central goal: protecting the Islamic Republic and exporting its revolutionary ideology.

“You need to separate the Revolutionary Guard and the regular army,” Middle East intelligence expert Danny Citrinowicz told Fox News Digital. “The Revolutionary Guard gets the whole budget; better salaries, better equipment, everything is better.”

Carl describes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as “deeply ideological praetorian guards,” while Artesh remains a more conventional force tasked with defending Iran’s borders.

But the distinction is not absolute.

“The IRGC is probably the more dangerous of the two, but we cannot ignore the threat posed by the regular military,” Carl said.

TRUMP’S IRAN STRATEGY SHOWS THE ‘DOCTRINE OF UNPREDICTION’ IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF ATTACK THREATS AND SURPRISE PAUSE

Missiles remain Iran’s most powerful weapon

Iran’s missile program remains the backbone of its military power even after extensive attacks.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force has spent years building what Carl describes as the largest missile inventory in the Middle East.

U.S. officials say these capabilities have been significantly diminished by recent attacks.

“Ballistic missile launches fired by Iran have decreased by 86% since the first day of the war,” Caine said at a briefing at the Pentagon in early March, adding that drone launches had fallen by about 73%.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said at the same briefing that the operation sharply limits Iran’s ability to continue attacks.

“The enemy can no longer fire missiles as much as before, or even get close,” he said.

But even US officials acknowledge that the threat remains.

“Iran will still be able to launch some missiles and launch one-way attack aircraft,” Hegseth said.

Carl said the decline in fires has remained steady.

“Iranian missile and drone fire has dropped rapidly…by about 90% since the start of the war…but that number has been steady for weeks,” he said. “This means they still have sufficient capacity to sustain attacks across the region.”

Citrinowicz made a similar assessment.

“They’ve been hit but they still have the capability and are capable of launching missiles in the coming weeks,” he said.

U.S. estimates cited by Carl indicate that roughly one-third of Iran’s missile capability remains active.

“The regime still has a significant capability to threaten targets across the region… particularly as it has demonstrated the ability to fire beyond 2,000 kilometers,” Carl said. he said.

WHY TRUMP AND IRAN ARE SEVERAL YEARS DIFFERENT ABOUT A POSSIBLE DEAL TO END THE WAR

A navy built to disrupt global trade

The Pentagon says Iran has made major gains against its naval forces.

More than 140 Iranian ships were damaged or destroyed, according to U.S. Central Command.

Caine said US forces had “effectively neutralized” Iran’s large naval presence in the region.

But analysts warn that Iran’s maritime threat has never depended on large ships.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is built around “area denial capabilities” including fast attack ships, mines, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles designed to attack enemies and disrupt their naval movements.

“They still have the capability (speedboats, drones, surface-to-sea missiles) that would allow them to close the Strait of Hormuz,” Citrinowicz said.

Carl warned against a common misconception.

“It is not technically correct to say that the Strait of Hormuz is closed… Iran selectively denies access… fires on some ships while allowing others to pass,” he said.

“Iran needs to do very, very little to achieve meaningful impact.”

HIZBOLLA AND IRAN ARE CARRYING OUT MAJOR COORDINED CLEAR BOMB ATTACKS ON ISRAEL

Air superiority but not complete control

U.S. officials say the campaign is making great progress in the air.

“We will have full control of the Iranian skies and undisputed airspace,” Hegseth said.

Caine added that US forces have already established “local air superiority” and are expanding their operations deeper into Iranian territory.

But Iran’s air force has never been at the center of its strategy. Years of sanctions have left it dependent on obsolete aircraft and limited modernization, leaving it far less capable than its Western or regional rivals.

“There is definitely a regression … but Iran was never built on an air force,” Citrinowicz said.

Instead, Iran relies on missiles, drones and layered defenses.

WHO ACTUALLY RULES IRAN RIGHT NOW? TRUMP’S CLAIMS MAIN POWER PLAYERS SPEAK TO ‘SUPERIOR’ OFFICIAL

Ground forces remain largely intact

Iran has a significant advantage in the field: Iranian forces have largely avoided direct combat.

According to Carl’s report, Artesh ground forces, which include dozens of brigades, are positioned primarily to defend Iran’s borders.

“Ground troops are still intact, no one invaded Iran,” Citrinowicz said. he said.

He noted that ground forces are increasingly launching drones, signaling a broader shift in the way Iran fights.

Proxy network expands Iran’s reach

Iran’s military power is being expanded beyond its borders through a network of proxy forces led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.

Carl said the Quds Force provides “leadership, materiel, intelligence, training and funding” to allied militias in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.

“The ‘Axis of Resistance’ is the central mechanism through which Iran can further regionalize the conflict and compromise the interests of as many actors as possible,” Carl said.

As IRAN rejects ceasefire, US moves airborne troops and marines, increases ground war potential

Designed to survive, not win

Iran’s military is also structured to combat internal threats, reinforcing its core purpose: regime survival.

The result is a strength built on redundancy, asymmetry and durability.

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD FOX NEWS APPLICATION

Even after weeks of sustained attacks, Iran has sufficient capacity to continue launching missiles, harassing global shipping, and utilizing proxies across the region.

It may be weakened, but it remains strategically dangerous.

“We cannot ignore the threat posed by the Iranian military,” Carl said, “and Iran remains a power capable of threatening regional and international security.”