Iran’s parliament backs blocking Strait of Hormuz

Iran may be threatening to close the Hormuz Strait, but experts are the highest people to lose CNBC.

In the big movement after Iran hit the nuclear areas Country Parliament on Sunday It has been reported that with the risk of alienating its neighbors and trade partners, it approved the closure of the Hormuz Strait.

The decision to close the waterway is now based on the country’s National Security Council, and this possibility has increased the ghost of higher energy prices and aggravated geopolitical tensions, and Washington called on Beijing to prevent the closure of the Bosphorus.

Vandana Hari, the founder of Energy Intelligence Company Vanda Insights, said CNBC’s possibility of closing the “Squawk Box Asia” was “absolutely minimalist”.

If the Iranian Strait prevents the country, the country is at risk of transforming neighboring oil -producing countries into enemies and risk of hostility with them.

Moreover, a closure is in Iran’s market in Asia, especially China Iran explains the majority of oil exports.

Hari, “Very, very little can not be obtained very little and Iran can do too much damage,” he said.

His opinion is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner of Signum Global Advisors, a consulting company.

He said Iran wouldn’t want to antagonize China. He said that the deterioration of the materials will “set a target” to the country’s own oil production, export infrastructure and regime.

Clayton Seigle, a senior member of Energy Safety and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Research, said that China is not only “very dependent on Iran, but from the Gulf to oil flows from the Gulf,” national security interest will really value the stabilization of the situation and will value a safe oil and gas flows throughout the hanger. “

Currently, there is no indication of threats for commercial transport that passes the water road, Joint Maritime Information Center. “The US -related ships have successfully transformed the Hormuz Strait with uninterrupted success, which is a positive sign for the near future.”

The Strait of Hormuz is the only naval route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and about 20% of the world’s oil passes the water path. US Energy Information Administration defined “The world’s most important oil transit Choketepoint”.

Signum’s bishop, “Iran’s operations in and around the hormuz ‘or the unlikely to be at all – instead of the total disruption of any of the shifts moves along a scale.” He said.

“Best Strategy [for Iran] The hormuz would have resonated the oil streams to harm the US through the moderate rise price movement, but it is not enough to provoke a major reaction of the US to Iran’s oil production and export capacity, “he said.

On Sunday, Patrick de Haan, President of the Oil Analysis in Gasbuddy, said that in a mission in X, Pump prices in the US could rise to $ 3.35- 3.50 per galli in the coming days and reach the national average $ 3.139 for the week of June 16th.

If the Iran decides to close the Strait, the quantum strategy strategist David Roche uses small boats for a partial blockade or a more complete solution.

In a market note, S&P Global Commodity Insights He wrote that any Iranian closure of the Bosphorus would mean that the nearby Gulf Nations, such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar, will also be affected by Iran’s own export.

The research company said that it would potentially remove more than 17 billion barrels of oil from global markets and affect regional refineries by causing raw material problems. The deterioration of supply will affect Asia, Europe and North America.

In addition to oil, natural gas flows can be “seriously affected,” said S&P, Qatar’s exports of approximately 77 million metric tons of gas per year, potentially unable to reach key markets in Asia and Europe.

Qatar’s LNG exports represent about 20% of global LNG supply.

“Alternative supply roads for Middle East oil and gas are limited, and there is no inadequate pipeline capacity to balance potential maritime cuts through the Gulf of Basra and the Red Sea.”

. Australian Nations Community Bank “There is a limited scope to jump the Hormuz Strait.” While the pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have only 2.6 million barrels of reserves per day, the Bosphorus controls the transport of 20 million barrels of oil and oil products per day.

All of this offers upward risk for energy prices and Goldman Sachs estimates that the market pricts at a $ 12 geopolitical risk premium.

If the oil flows from the Bosphorus would decrease 50% for a month and then decreased by 11 months, Brent is expected to “briefly jump to a $ 110 summit”.

Brent Petroleum futures are currently $ 78.95 per barrel. West Texas intermediate matter Term transactions were traded for $ 75.75.