Islamic regime won’t just fall over. This war is likely to be long and bloody
Idea
Despite being severely damaged by the joint US-Israeli air and naval campaign, Iran’s Islamic regime has so far proven to be more resilient and resilient. Israel’s killing of religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many senior political and military leaders did not prevent the regime from leading the war, which will now intensify.
The stated goal of the United States and Israel was to create positive regime change in Iran. Their goal, as stated by President Donald Trump, was to disable the regime and empower the oppressed Iranian people, overthrow the theocratic system and seize power once the military campaign for Iran’s democratic transformation is over.
The assassination of Khamenei last Friday is a serious blow to the regime, but not an insurmountable one. Many Iranian leaders have been killed in the past (although none at the level of a religious leader). However, they were replaced without any problems. Now, a three-member interim ruling council has been established to carry out Khamenei’s duties until a permanent religious leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, a constitutional body.
This factionalized structure, dominated by the clergy, will decide to appoint someone from its own ranks or from outside, after a great deal of horse-trading. If the appointee comes from hardline groups, he can be expected to follow Khamenei’s path, but if he comes from moderate/reformist groups, some political and economic reforms can be expected that will ease theocratic restrictions, improve the difficult economic situation, and promote conciliatory foreign relations, including with the United States.
Khamenei was a polarizing, theocratic political and spiritual leader of Shiite Islam. Many Iranians opposed him, as evidenced by mass protests suppressed by the regime at the cost of thousands of lives earlier this year. He was also revered by many inside and outside Iran who mourned his passing with calls for revenge. Since he was killed in an Israeli operation with US involvement, some of his followers will perceive his assassination as a sign of a Judeo-Christian alliance against Shiite Islam, a historic minority in the predominantly Sunni Muslim world whose cause is supported by Khamenei.
This has already triggered emotional scenes in Iran and protests by Shiites in various Muslim countries, and carries the potential for the emergence of more violent anti-Western extremist groups in line with entities such as Al Qaeda, Islamic State and the Taliban. The longer the current conflict continues, the more space there will be for such extremist groups to become more active.
For the Islamic regime, this conflict is a matter of survival. It has the necessary coercive means, including a range of advanced short- and long-range missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, to deal with any internal unrest and to operate against Israel and the United States for an extended period of time. These include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the paramilitary Basij forces, the army, religious circles and many bureaucrats and executives whose fortunes are tied to the regime.
They are all currently at war, and so far no major rift has emerged in their deep-rooted and institutionalized commitment to fighting for the preservation of the system. The regime’s survival will only be very tenuous if there are ruptures from these elements. Iran’s strategic position also favors the regime that has already blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and this has serious implications for global energy and liquefied gas supplies.
The United States and Israel, on the other hand, used overwhelming firepower to destroy the regime but lacked a clear and appropriate strategy for regime change. They began their military operations with the belief that they would destroy the regime’s defensive and offensive capabilities within a few days through air and sea operations, paving the way for the opposition to put oil-rich Iran on the path of democratic change and development in alliance with the West.
However, it seems that they have not made a full assessment of the nature and durability of the Islamic regime. Nor did they see that regime change would necessarily require soldiers in the field; This is something that Trump has not ruled out but seems unlikely to consider given America’s recent bitter experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan and his criticism of US involvement in those wars.
The level of resistance from the regime was somewhat surprising, prompting Trump to announce that the war could last a month or more and soften his emphasis on regime change. On Monday, the United States redefined its mission as destroying the regime’s nuclear program and eliminating its missile capabilities as a threat to the United States, although it declared it “destroyed” in a June 2025 US air strike. This is contrary to Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of completely destroying the regime.
This being the case, it is likely that the Islamic regime will survive this crisis. All parties involved in the conflict find themselves in a difficult corner. Ultimately, the future of the regime and Iran should be decided by the Iranian people, not by external intervention for geopolitical interests.
Amin Saikal is honorary professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the ANU, adjunct professor of social sciences at the University of Western Australia, Vice-Chancellor’s strategic fellow at the University of Victoria, and author of: Iran Rising: The Survival and Future of the Islamic Republic (Princeton UP, 2021).
Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern, Central Asian and Islamic studies at the Australian National University.
