Israel’s gamble on force could push Iran to accelerate nuclear plans | Iran’s nuclear programme

Within a few days, the war killed more than a dozen of Israel, killed Iran’s best nuclear scientists, removed most of the best military hierarchy, and attacked the locks of the nuclear program.

Israel was a strong exhibition of military and intelligence dominance, but Iran’s widely scattered and severely protected nuclear program did not critically damage, Israeli military commanders and international nuclear proliferation experts are participating.

And far from preventing nuclear proliferation, Israel’s entry into force can direct Iran to accelerate Iran if it ends without fully destroying the current conflict program or without making an agreement with iron -covered controls and extensive control forces.

Israeli military official, Israel’s first attacks for several months Iran’s “separation” or a functioning ability to make a nuclear weapon, he said.

However, US intelligence officials believe that Tehran is up to three years away from delivering a weapon and not actively bombing, CNN reported on Tuesday – this will make this delay relatively insignificant.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran had started attacks because it was on the verge of having a nuclear bomb. However, even if this is true, strikes will not take any more time and Israel may not be able to damage more permanently without helping.

What the attacks succeed is to increase fear between Iranian leadership and anger between the Iranian population. The hatred of many Iranians for their governments did not dull the horror of a missile strike that killed dozens of children in their homes, and Israel aroused the terrible ghost of Gaza’s fate to evacuate all neighborhoods.

Israel has developed its own nuclear arsenal as a deterrent, but never officially accepted that it was a clear secret. Many of them in Iran were convinced that they needed the same thing, and this war will probably reduce the anger of the people against the cost of these advances.

According to Sima Shine, former Israel’s former research president at The Mossad Intelligence Agency, there was more focus on Iran’s probability of nuclear program after the collapse of regional deputies serving as the defense shield of the regime.

“As I have seen for a year and a half, I have never talked so much about nuclear military talent,” Shine said. Most focused on Iran’s decision not to build bombs instead of the capacity to do so, but the decision to withdraw can be easily put aside.

“If the war ends without destroying the nuclear program, if Iran allows it to break out, they will probably do it [it]”He said.

A Western military official with experience in the region agreed that Israel’s attacks were likely to encourage proliferation, although it was framed as preventive strikes. “My own opinion, if they have the capacity after that, they will go as fast as they can to buy a nuclear weapon.”

The biggest obstacle to the military destruction of Iran’s nuclear project is Fordow, near the holy city of QOM, which is so deep under a mountain that even the most powerful ammunition of Israel cannot reach.

Centrifuges and the country’s highly enriched uraniums, and the only bombs that can destroy it are the most powerful shelter ammunition of the United States.

National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi warned that Israeli defense forces cannot dismantle Iran’s nuclear program under the influence of the first strikes of Israel Euphoria.

He said to the Israeli media, “Kinetic means.” Instead, the army may create conditions for a long -term agreement that will completely prevent Iran’s nuclear program by the United States.

Netanyahu doubts that the US military cooperation would prefer a diplomatic solution and encourages Trump to give up the anti -war stance, which helps to bring power to power. “First I understand America, I don’t understand that America is dead,” he said in an interview to ABC TV.

The Israeli leader imagines not only destroying the nuclear program, but also the change of regime in Tehran. However, with every missile descending to civilian regions, his objections to the Iranian people are more empty on the ground.

“We underestimate the psychological influence of the Gaza War, including the Iranians who hate [the government]”Johns Hopkins University, Professor of International Relations, Governor Nasr.

“Gaza also has a bad, vicious government used as a reason for action against it. Israel willingly, especially the desire to kill civilians.”

The fear of Israeli attacks, Western tolerance to mass murders and former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, was strengthened by extreme military tactics described as war crimes.

“There was a belief that the international liberal order would keep Israel under control, and that Europe and the US could not tolerate using Israel by abandoning its military power,” Nasr said. Trust to any restriction capacity was disintegrated in Gaza rubble.

If Trump ultimately decides to stay away from this war and accepting an agreement that will prevent the Iranian program, Israel may still have military options for more permanent damage to Fordow.

Alex Grinberg, an analyst and former Iranian researcher at the IDF Intelligence Research Department, has always been a fixation by bombing nuclear areas in Israel and in the world. Even if it is impossible to destroy Fordow from the air, there are other methods in the IDF Intelligence Research Department and former Iranian researcher Alex Grinberg.

Israel capture Most of a comprehensive nuclear archive has probably accessed Fordow plans, which can facilitate the disability of support systems, preventing access, or even sending special forces to destroy the facility in a ground operation.

In other Israeli raids, there is a precedent for these approaches. This week, an attack on electrical supply on another enrichment facility in Natanz destroyed centrifuges as causing them to be out of control.

Israel Special Forces sent commandos last year Destroy an underground Hezbollah missile factory in the depths of Syria. Fordow was heavily defended, but Israel can now fly in an elite teams on a C-130 plane to try to storm the site, as it now claims that it has ruled the airspace in Western Iran.

David Albright, President of the Institute of Science and International Security, said that despite Netanyahu’s physical destruction campaign, Iran’s nuclear activities restricting and a strict audit regime and probably Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be closed more permanently.

“One of the problems with Israel’s strategy is that if they leave, if they quit bombing, Iran can be rebuilt. And then they have to start bombing again.”