One Nation forecast to become federal opposition: poll
The federal coalition’s electoral problems may worsen; A new poll predicts that the opposition will have fewer than ten seats in parliament if an election is held.
A DemosAU poll of more than 8,400 people on Friday showed the coalition could win nine to 17 seats, while One Nation would be the official opposition, with Pauline Hanson’s party expected to win 46 to 55 voters.
If an election were held soon, Labor would win a third term in government, but with a smaller majority and a predicted 77 to 86 seats in the lower house.
The poll, which used modeling to produce predictions for all 150 federal electorates, showed One Nation taking the lead in almost all electorates held by the Liberals and Nationals, including Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s seat of Hume.
One Nation was also predicted to be ahead in some Labor-held regional electorates such as Gilmore in NSW, Leichhardt in Queensland, Braddon in Tasmania and Hunter in NSW.
DemosAU research director George Hasanakos said the Liberals would be on the crossbench if the poll results are accurate.
“We are also seeing One Nation making inroads into the Labor vote in the urban fringes of many capital cities, such as Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, where many new residents are seeing lower house prices elsewhere,” he said.
“The inner and middle rings of the capitals are dominated by labour, but urban fringes and regional seats will have a fight on their hands in those numbers.”
The poll is the latest round of voter surveys showing support for One Nation rising at the expense of the coalition.
The latest News Poll showed One Nation had a higher proportion of primary votes than the coalition, while the opposition came in third place.
Pauline Hanson’s party is forecast to make headway in Saturday’s election in South Australia.
Mr. Hasanakos said it was too early to tell whether the momentum behind One Nation was sustainable between now and the next election, which is not expected until 2028 at the latest.
“The increase in support has certainly sent a message to the major parties and we can expect the coalition to focus its efforts on winning back the voters it lost, particularly to One Nation,” he said.
“This process began with the transition of leadership of the coalition parties to Angus Taylor for the Liberals and Matt Canavan for the Nationals, both of whom may be seen as more attractive than their predecessors to the group of voters lost to One Nation.”
