What the Houthis’ entry into the Iran war means for the conflict and the wider region | US-Israel war on Iran
The true significance of Yemen’s Houthis’ entry into the long-awaited war with Iran depends on whether the Tehran-backed proxy group plans to send several missiles and drones toward Israel or instead plans to take advantage of its proximity to the narrow Bab al-Mandeb Strait to effectively close the Red Sea to shipping, just as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
The combined effect of closing both waterways to commercial traffic from countries favored by neither the Iranians nor the Houthis would be devastating. Napoleon Bonaparte’s words “the policy of a state lies in its geography” have never been more appropriate.
The Houthis, a Shiite sect with a deep hatred of Israel and who have ruled large parts of Yemen, including the capital, since 2014, are a complex and resilient movement that could face setbacks step by step. In August 2025, Israel killed the Houthi prime minister, his chief of staff, and a group of cabinet ministers in a single intelligence-led attack. However, Israel has never been able to locate the movement’s leader, Abd al-Malik al-Houthi.
It has yet to fight directly on behalf of Iran, although most of its weapons have been sent from Tehran, according to UN reports.
The ceasefire, brokered by the US and Oman, has been in effect since May 2025 and has put an end to attacks on US ships via Bab al-Mandab since October 2023.
This ceasefire reflected the damage the Houthis had suffered from successive waves of increasingly effective attacks on Houthi missile launchers, with US and sometimes British support. The Houthis emphasized that the ceasefire does not apply to Israel in any way and that some attacks continued after that.
One reason for the ceasefire was Iran’s desire to gain political momentum ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks in spring 2025. The Houthis extended the ceasefire to include Israel in October 2025, when Israel reached a truce of sorts with Hamas in Gaza. Even after the joint Israeli-US attack on Iran in the 12-day war last year, the Houthis largely backed down.
But major carriers such as Maersk have only slowly begun to restart traffic across the Red Sea, avoiding the more expensive, significantly longer alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope.
Bab al-Mandeb, between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, has always been vulnerable to Houthi attacks with drones, missiles and small boats.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a Middle East expert at London think tank Chatham House, warned that any sustained disruptions would increase shipping costs, drive up oil prices and place an additional burden on an already fragile global economy reeling from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s broader strategy to mobilize allied groups in the region appears to be evolving, and Iran has predicted that the perception in Yemen that the Houthis are too wary of Iran will grow over time.
The Houthis may be cautious, in part because they are seeking rewards in the form of cash from Saudi Arabia. In southern Yemen, the Saudis have for now defeated the southern separatist cause put forward by the Southern Transitional Council. The United Arab Emirates, which supported the STC at the beginning of the year under pressure from Riyadh, also left Yemen; This means that Saudi Arabia is now solely responsible for the future of Yemen; This is an arduous task that requires Riyadh to make deals not only with former STC supporters but also with the Houthis.
The STC has officially disbanded but remains in existence and expects Riyadh and the UN-recognized southern government to fail, insisting that the southern cause is as strong as ever. Riyadh cannot afford to fight on too many fronts; Therefore, if necessary, it will try to find backdoor methods to reach an agreement with the Houthis and minimize the threat of attack in the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia is pouring money into the new government in the south, and the Houthis in the north may want a piece of the financial action in exchange for not continuing to fight against the south or disrupting the Red Sea.
But ultimately, the Houthis’ power comes from banning ships rather than sending missiles to Israel.
In this process, Yemen may move further away from peace after more than a decade of civil war.
Hans Grundberg, the UN special envoy for Yemen, said: “This escalation threatens to drag Yemen into regional war, which will make resolving the conflict in Yemen even more difficult, deepen its economic repercussions and prolong the suffering of civilians.” This isn’t his first warning against escalation, and it’s unlikely to be the last.
