Kellie Sloane can’t beat Minns next time. But she has a winning factor to spook him
NSW Liberal leader Kellie Sloane’s new-look frontbencher will not win her the next state election. The task is huge. There is so little time, so many seats up for grabs.
But what the opposition leader managed to do in his shadow cabinet reshuffle was to prepare the Liberals for the future. Sloane doesn’t admit it, but her senior agents do. The NSW Liberals are playing the long game with their National partners, laying the foundation for a 2031 victory.
There was a hopeful development when the coalition lost the 2023 election after 12 years in power. Out with the old, in with the new. While many wise heads such as former planning minister Rob Stokes, then health minister Brad Hazzard, former customer services minister Victor Dominello and former transport minister David Elliott bowed out, their exits allowed generational renewal.
After that election the Coalition team included five Liberals under the age of 35 and several more Millennials. Since then, two more have been added to the midterm elections. James Wallace replaced former environment minister Matt Kean as Hornsby MP and Monica Tudehope took the seat of Epping from her boss Dominic Perrottet. Wallace and Tudehope are now the frontrunners.
It is a young team, although its experience has not been erased. Damien Tudehope, soon to become a grandfather at 16 thanks to his future daughter and MP Monica, remains in Sloane’s shadow cabinet. Household father and right-wing power broker Anthony Roberts returned to the front row as police spokesman, and Sloane’s predecessor, Mark Speakman, was given responsibility for the critical education portfolio.
Of course, labor does not consist only of grey-headed people. There are also young talents like Housing Minister Rose Jackson, Finance Minister Courtney Houssos and Summer Hill MP Jo Haylen, who was temporarily sidelined for her ill-advised decision to use her taxpayer-funded chauffeur to take him on a boozy Hunter Valley lunch. He will complete his term and return to the front row.
But significantly, Sloane’s new squad, which was belatedly announced on Tuesday after the Bondi terror attack was put on the back burner, exposes a gap in Labor shares. It highlights a big problem that will make the die-hards on Sussex Street sweat. What happens when Premier Chris Minns brings out the stumps, as he eventually must?
The Liberals have obvious leadership options for the future – energy spokesman James Griffin, Monica Tudehope and Wallace are just three – while Labor has fewer clear options and none of them are any match for Minns, the one-man band holding the show together.
Health Minister Ryan Park or Planning Minister Paul Scully could do the job, and Education Minister Prue Car could also be an option if she wanted to after recovering from breast cancer. Haylen was also once considered a possible premiere, but her judgment may have made that difficult.
Minn. is not pursuing an aggressive policy agenda other than building more homes, and the state has significant fiscal pressures; This means Labor can cut the ribbons on projects already underway but does not have the opportunity to engage in much innovation. Ambition is expensive, and Minns only tells us what we can’t have (e.g. more metropolises) rather than what we can.
For now it doesn’t seem to be hurting him.
Minns further strengthened his leadership and position in the eyes of voters with his attitude towards the Bondi massacre and its aftermath. He appeared strong and determined, largely because he took swift action on gun laws and protests and promised a state royal commission, while his federal counterpart Anthony Albanese faltered.
Minns showed the right attitude, attended nine funerals and gained the trust of the Jewish community. Albanese, by contrast, looks weak and lost.
Sloane, whose electorate includes Bondi, proved himself in a baptism of fire that no leader would want to face. Like Minns, he is a lovely person, but Sloane’s real obstacle as we enter the final 14 months of this term is his inexperience. This, and the sheer number of ultra-marginal seats it would need to avoid going backwards, make its mandate impossible for 2027.
But don’t expect a bad battle. A senior Liberal source has predicted the upcoming election campaign will play out like this: “The two coolest kids in school will be pitted against each other.” Sloane may play the long game, but the problem for Labor will be: What happens when their cool kids don’t want to be in the gang anymore?
Alexandra Smith is the Herald’s state political editor.
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