Kemi Badenoch is closing in on Nigel Farage, poll finds… but Reform and Tories combined are still only level with horror coalition of parties on the Left
Kemi Badenoch celebrates the rise in the Christmas polls after the Conservatives closed the gap on Nigel Farage’s Reform England to just three points.
The year-end poll shows Ms Badenoch’s party gaining 22 per cent, up from 20 per cent a month ago; which suggests his improving Commons performances and new policy ideas are starting to ‘buy in’ with voters. Reform fell to 25 percent.
Analysis by former Conservative Party deputy leader Lord Ashcroft highlights the heated state of Right-wing politics. In the equivalent poll a month ago, Reform UK had a seven-point lead, a lead that would have placed Mr Farage within striking distance of Downing Street. However, according to these latest figures, his chances of becoming prime minister depend on an agreement with the Conservative Party.
Labor is in fourth place, one point behind Zack Polanski’s Greens. This means that unless Labor manages to improve its performance, the party’s hopes of returning to 10th place will depend on a Left coalition with the Greens and Liberal Democrats.
When the individual parties’ scores are added up, such a union would have the support of 47 percent of the electorate; which would be the same as the combined support of the Conservative Party and Reform. This means that if the Right fails to unite, the Left may have a clear path to maintain power.
Ms. Badenoch has managed to assuage some of the unease in her backbenchers by giving more assured public performances in recent weeks.
Sir Keir Starmer has highlighted the turmoil in his Government and has begun to put together a more coherent policy package, including the removal of stamp duty and a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars after 2030.
Conversely, doubts were beginning to emerge among voters about whether Reform could move beyond the ‘Nigel Farage stunt’ and become an effective Government party.
End-of-year poll puts Ms Badenoch’s party at 22 per cent of the vote, up from 20 per cent a month ago
When voters were asked whether Mr Farage had enough talented people to form an administration, only 17 per cent thought he did, while 60 per cent disagreed.
Faithless Labor voters want to wait to give the party a chance to stem its decline in popularity (Image: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer)
When voters were asked whether Mr Farage had enough talented people to form an administration, only 17 per cent thought he did, while 60 per cent did not.
Disappointment with the government led to voters’ election excitement. While 39 percent of people want the vote to be held next year, 26 percent would prefer to wait until 2029, the last point at which the vote can be legally held.
Die-hard Labor voters want to wait to give the party a chance to stem its decline in popularity. Half of his supporters want the Government to remain in office until the end of its five-year term, while only 17 percent want elections next year.
Many Labor supporters cling to the belief that a new leader like Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner could turn their fortunes around. But while 51 per cent of Labor voters want Ms Rayner, who resigned after underpaying stamp duty, to return to cabinet, only 26 per cent of general voters say so. And they think he would be a worse prime minister than Sir Keir.
Mr Farage may be losing his lead in the polls but he continues to lead the rankings in the festive part of the survey. When people are asked which party leader they would like to spend New Year’s Eve with most, it comes first.
He will also ‘most likely hide in the bar until Christmas dinner is ready’, ‘most likely fall asleep in front of the TV after lunch’, ‘most likely burn his lunch’, ‘most likely get into an argument at lunch’ and ‘most likely do something embarrassing at the office party’.
But while Sir Keir is expected to “give a boring speech at the Christmas party” and “will be more likely to get together to do some work”, Ms Badenoch will “most likely help tidy up after Christmas dinner” and was the most popular choice for a kiss under the mistletoe.
But what casts a shadow over Christmas is the economy. Overall, 38 percent of people say they will have less money to spend on gifts this year. Only 11 percent say they could be more generous.
A total of 5,195 voters cast ballots between December 11 and 15.
