Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: Poll heat rises in Palakkad as BJP trains guns on UDF MLA scandal

Palakkad is set to feel the heat twice over due to the scorching summer and the intensifying Assembly election fight. With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) determinedly mobilizing its resources to capture Palakkad, the constituency is likely to be the focus as Kerala goes to polls on April 9, 2026.

Sobha Surendran, who was elected as the BJP candidate, started her campaign in Palakkad. The party sees Ms Surendran as one of its strongest candidates in the constituency and has finished second behind the United Democratic Front (UDF) in the three Assembly elections held since 2016, including the 2024 by-election.

It was Ms. Surendran who helped propel the BJP to second place in 2016 by garnering 29.08% of the votes and pushing the Communist Party of India (Marxist). [CPI(M)] He came in third place for the first time in the constituency. Since then, the BJP has maintained a strong presence in Palakkad.

When veteran technocrat E. Sreedharan contested for the BJP nomination in 2021, he narrowly lost to UDF’s Shafi Parambil by 3,859 votes; a defeat the party still regrets and hopes to reverse. The BJP has now brought back Ms. Surendran for a second attempt in Palakkad, hoping to escape the brunt of the 2024 by-elections in which the party’s State vice-president C. Krishnakumar lost to Rahul Mamkootathil by a record margin of 18,840 votes.

Mamkooathil problem

This time, the BJP is targeting the UDF by featuring its beleaguered MLA, Mr. Mamkootathil, who was sentenced to 18 days in jail and faces multiple allegations of sexual harassment. On Saturday, the party and its leaders held a symbolic hearing of the Palakkad MLA in the town.

Even though the Congress has expelled him, the UDF faces the difficult task of managing the political fallout of the Mamkooathil case. Palakkad has been without actual representation for months due to serious allegations against Mr Mamkooathil, who was elected MLA in November 2024.

The BJP deployed Ms. Surendran to take advantage of the situation both politically and emotionally. Despite securing an average vote share of 41.6% in the last seven Assembly elections, the UDF is struggling and is yet to field a candidate who can defeat Ms. Surendran.

The Left Democratic Front (LDF), which has been in third place since 2016, has not yet announced its candidate. It may be in the interest of the BJP if the LDF nominates a weak candidate.

LDF vote share

LDF’s vote share in Palakkad has fallen steadily over the last three decades, from 43.20% in 1996 to 24.52% in 2024. This erosion corresponded to an increase in the BJP’s vote share. The trajectory is as follows: 43.20% in 1996, 38.77% in 2001, 36.97% in 2006, 35.82% in 2011, 28.07% in 2016, 25.64% in 2021 and 24.52% in 2024. Considering the current organizational state of the LDF, a rapid revival due to the machinery in Palakkad seems unlikely.