Kerala Assembly polls 2026: Bitter battle for nine seats that can turn electoral fortunes

At least nine constituencies in Kerala are experiencing major three-cornered contests that could even decide the final outcome of the Assembly elections scheduled for April 9.

Of these constituencies, Nemom, Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkkavu and Aranmula are in the southern part of the state; Pala, Thrissur and Nattika are in central Kerala; Palakkad and Manjeshwaram are in North Kerala. While six of them have MLAs from the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), the rest are represented by the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram district has so far been the only constituency in Kerala to elect a member from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to the Assembly. Senior BJP leader O. Rajagopal had defeated LDF’s K. Sivankutty in 2016. Mr Sivankutty regained the seat by defeating the BJP’s Kummanam Rajasekharan by a margin of 3,949 votes in the 2021 polls. UDF’s K. Muraleedharan was placed third. The difference in vote share between LDF and NDA candidates was only around three percentage points. Mr Sivankutty is now facing BJP State President Rajeev Chandrasekhar and UDF’s KS Sabarinadhan, a councilor and former MLA in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation.

In Vattiyurkavu too, NDA candidates had finished second in the 2016 (Mr Rajasekharan) and 2021 elections (VV Rajesh). However, the Congress may come second in the 2019 election poll in which incumbent MLA VK Prasanth was first elected to the Assembly. Mr. Prashanth is now running for a third term. His NDA rival is R. Sreelekha, a former DGP and councilor in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. The UDF candidate is Mr. K. Muraleedharan, who won the Assembly elections from here in 2011 and 2016.

Kazhakkottam is another segment where NDA is strong. The BJP had come second here in the previous two elections. In 2021, LDF’s Kadakampally Surendran defeated NDA’s Shobha Surendran by a margin of 23,497 votes. In 2016, Mr. Surendran’s victory was won by a margin of 7,347 votes against the BJP’s V. Muraleedharan. The difference in vote share was 5.48 points. Currently, Mr. Surendran is again contesting against Mr. V. Muraleedharan. The UDF candidate is T. Sharatchandra Prasad, a former MLA. NDA’s hopes rest on its recent victory in the local body polls in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation.

The BJP is waging a high-stakes contest in the temple town of Aranmula in Pathanamthitta, where LDF’s Health Minister Veena George is running for a third term. He had defeated Congress’s K. Sivadasan Nair in 2016.(with 7,646 votes) and 2021 (with 19,003 votes). The NDA deployed Mr. Rajasekharan from here to capitalize on his popularity during the agitation against the proposed Aranmula Airport. The Congress candidate is Abin Varkey, who could sway some of the community votes that were reportedly in favor of Ms. George in the previous elections.

Thrissur had witnessed a close contest in the 2021 polls and then LDF candidate P. Balachandran from the Communist Party of India (CPI) won the race with a victory margin of 946 votes. The closest rivals were UDF’s Padmaja Venugopal and NDA’s Suresh Gopi respectively. Ms. Venugopal is now the NDA candidate and Mr. Gopi had won the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from here. While UDF has now nominated former Mayor Rajan Pallan, LDF’s candidate is poet Alankode Leelakrishnan.

Meanwhile, the Palakkad seat has already come into limelight with Opposition Leader VD Satheesan claiming a “deal” between the Left and the BJP here. According to Mr. Satheesan, the LDF has brought an independent candidate, hotelier NMR Razak, here to split the anti-BJP votes in favor of the UDF candidate, actor Ramesh Pisharody. NDA candidate here Ms. Shobha Surendran had finished second in the 2016 elections.In the 2021 polls, Shafi Parambil, currently the Lok Sabha MP from Vadakara, clinched a narrow victory by 3,859 votes against NDA’s ‘Metro man’ E. Sreedharan. The UDF has decided not to field incumbent MLA Rahul Mamkootathil, who won the by-election in 2024 by a huge margin, after sexual misconduct allegations were leveled against him.

Manjeshwaram also has a track record where the NDA narrowly missed out on winning from here. K. Surendran, who later became the State president of the BJP, lost to the Indian Union Muslim League’s UDF candidate PB Abdul Razak by a margin of just 89 votes in 2016. K. Sundara, an independent, received 467 votes. Mr. Surendran lost once again in 2021, this time to UDF’s AKM Ashraf by a margin of 855 votes. While NDA and UDF have fielded their candidates here, LDF has nominated KR Jayananda.

While Kottayam’s Pala and Thrissur’s Nattika have not had a three-way poll battle so far, this election could be a different story. In Pala, Kerala Congress (Mani) chief Jose K. Mani from LDF is again taking on incumbent MLA Mani C. Kappan from UDF. The NDA has fielded Shone George, son of former Poonjar MLA PC George. In Nattika, incumbent MLA CC Mukundan, who was earlier with CPI, is contesting as an NDA candidate against former MLA Geetha Gopi. Sunil Laloor is the UDF candidate.