Kevin Hogan tipped to beat Matt Canavan after David Littleproud quits
National MPs are expecting a tight result in today’s vote to replace David Littleproud as leader, with current deputy leader Kevin Hogan predicted to gain the upper hand over Senator Matt Canavan.
Hogan’s supporters believe he has at least eight guaranteed votes heading into the 10 a.m. party room meeting to elect a new leader. Led by Darren Chester and Pat Conaghan, Hogan’s supporters include the same group of MPs who backed Littleproud: Sam Birrell, Jamie Chaffey, Anne Webster, Michelle Landry, Andrew Willcox and Littleproud himself.
Canavan’s support comes from the party’s more conservative MPs such as Colin Boyce, David Watt and Lew O’Brien, as well as senators Ross Cadell and Susan McDonald.
Michael McCormack was considering running for office, but it seems unlikely he will do so. He is expected to support Canavan.
Bridget McKenzie will run but is expected to come in third place in the vote between Littleproud and Hogan and support Canavan.
“There’s one or two votes,” one MP said.
The candidates will address a meeting in Parliament House on Wednesday and Canavan, who has been campaigning against One Nation on immigration and energy for months, could sway some soft votes to himself if he inspires his colleagues. Some lawmakers are uncomfortable with a senator leading the party because leaders often come from the House of Representatives.
Littleproud stunned almost all of his colleagues when he resigned after Question Time on Tuesday.
Only Hogan, Littleproud’s loyal lieutenant and not previously seen as a candidate with the energy and drive to lead the party, was told in advance. Hogan was told of Littleproud’s decision early Tuesday.
One MP said the decision to notify Hogan early and hold the vote the morning after Littleproud’s call appeared designed to give Hogan the best chance of winning.
More to come.
Paul Sakkal is the chief political correspondent. He has previously covered Victorian politics and won the Walkley and Quill awards. Reach him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14Connect with: X or email.
