Kevin Warsh moves ahead in Fed chief race on Kalshi after Hassett pushback

Kevin Warsh has edged ahead of Kevin Hassett in prediction markets on who President Donald Trump will nominate as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, as doubts about Hassett’s candidacy grow in Trump’s orbit.

Traders at Kalshi marked Warsh as the narrow favorite to replace Jerome Powell on Monday, giving him a roughly 46% chance of the nomination, compared with Hassett’s about 39%. Just last week Hassett’s chances were as high as 77% while Warsh’s chances were as low as 10%.

The change comes after new objections to Hassett from senior figures with direct access to the president, according to people familiar with the matter. Those advisers expressed concern that Hassett, now the director of the National Economic Council, was seen as too close to Trump.

This resistance may help explain the uncertainty of the process earlier this month, when interviews with potential candidates were abruptly canceled in early December. Sources said, at least in Warsh’s case, those talks were later scheduled and held last week.

Warsh, the former Fed governor who served from 2006 to 2011, has long been seen as a reliable choice for Republicans. Hassett has been a fixture on Trump’s economic team during both terms; Some advisers now fear that proximity could harm the Fed’s institutional standing.

The market’s action accelerated after Trump added new uncertainty to the race late last week. Trump, who previously told reporters he already knew who he would pick as Fed chair, told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that Warsh had risen to the top of the list of candidates.