Labor market is ‘generally in balance,’ economist explains

00:00 Speaker A

Interestingly, Laura, because other economists are not the place to listen, inflation, that is, J. Powell, but they will say that the Fed is now focusing on the weakening in the labor market, and so they say that the cut is a lock in September. What do you say to this?

00:24 Laura

Of course, I think the labor market is softened, but we should remember that it softens from an incredibly strict starting point. We still see a general balance in the market. UM is just a slightly lower level balanced. So, one of the metrics I use is not only the job numbers, but how many jobs have been created, but how many unemployed workers do we have for every work opening? Currently this number is walking around one -to -one. Typically, in a kind of normal labor market, we see more than one job for each existing open position. I mean, I know that this feels different from what you’ve felt in recent years. Absolutely, UM is based on many skills. It may be necessary to have some reproduction. In general, however, we see the labor market at a slightly lower level. This is less looking for less job and less work is created. Since both are demographic challenges with the existence of labor, now a limited number of young people aging in the labor market against retired infant explosives. We also have negative net migration expected this year. This will limit labor in some key sectors. Now, businesses feel all this policy uncertainty. They want to play their cards closer to the vest. In other words, we don’t see that creating new employment is extensively, UM, existing positions are coming. I mean, all this means we’re still in balance for me. Both sides are currently not significantly released, but only reduced numbers. I think this is something we’re not used to thinking about how the job report emerged.