By-election in Chicoutimi | A rematch for the Conservative Party

Indeed, the PCQ finished second in the Arthabaska complementary last fall in a heartbreaking defeat to the benefit of the Parti Québécois (PQ), which would still be first according to polls in Chicoutimi.

This time, opinion polls suggest that the PCQ would again be second, the only party to warm up the PQ in the Saguenay constituency. The conservatives could thus define themselves as the only serious opponents of the PQ in the general elections in October.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which had obtained its largest majority in the 2022 general election by re-electing Minister Andrée Laforest, would lag behind this time and would likely have great difficulty repeating its feat.

The resignation of M^me Laforest last September forced the holding of this complementary which does not come at the best time for the CAQ, while the ruling party arrives at the end of eight years of reign and is in the middle of the race to succeed François Legault.

Chicoutimi could nevertheless serve as a barometer of trends in view of the next general elections.

We could know in particular if the departure of Mr. Legault can breathe new life into the CAQ, even if the next leader will not be chosen before April 12.

We could perhaps also see if there is a renewed interest among French-speaking voters in the Liberal Party (PLQ), following the recent coronation of new leader Charles Milliard.

But also, we will be able to measure whether the PQ manages to maintain the momentum acquired since its victory in the 2023 Jean-Talon by-election, while its commitment to holding a referendum on independence in a possible first mandate could cool voters in the context of the Canada-United States trade war.

If the PQ wins Chicoutimi on Monday evening, it would obtain a perfect record, i.e. four victories in four complementary since 2023.

Indeed, in addition to Jean-Talon, there was Terrebonne in 2024, then Arthabaska in August 2025. The formation of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, which had only managed to elect three deputies in the general election of 2022, has thus managed to double its parliamentary group so far.

A changing constituency

Historically, Chicoutimi has been both PQ… and also conservative.

It was an independence stronghold acquired by the PQ from 1973 until the election of the first CAQ government of François Legault in 2018.

But at the federal level, the riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which does not overlap exactly with the same boundaries, has been in the hands of the Conservative Party of Canada since 2018.

And it was previously held by its predecessor, the Progressive Conservative Party, but also the Liberal Party of Canada and even briefly the New Democratic Party – so it is not territory acquired by the Bloc Québécois, the sovereignist party close to the PQ.

A recent poll suggested a two-way fight between the PQ and the PCQ.

The Pallas opinion survey commissioned by the PCQ and conducted on January 22 gave 29% of voting intentions to the PQ and 19% to the PCQ, in second, with 27% undecided. The sample was only 311 respondents and the margin of error was plus or minus 6%, 19 times out of 20

The PLQ reached only 9%, the CAQ followed closely at 8%, while QS brought up the rear at 7%.

The candidates

The one the PQ is counting on to take back the riding is Marie-Karlynn Laflamme, interim vice-rector for administrative affairs and resources at the University of Quebec at Chicoutimi (UQAC).

The one who must defend the government’s record in Chicoutimi and keep the riding in the hands of the CAQ is Francis Tremblay, employee of the Integrated University Health and Social Services Center (CIUSSS) of Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean and master’s student.

Entrepreneur Catherine Morissette wears the colors of the PCQ, while political attaché to the liberal parliamentary wing Tricia Murray represents the PLQ.

Jeanne Palardy was nominated as a candidate for Québec solidaire. She is a coordinator in a shelter for women in difficulty.

Preliminary data from Élections Québec indicates that 5,343 people, or 11.67% of the electorate, voted in advance in this by-election.

Polling stations will be open Monday from 9:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. Seventeen voting locations will be open and they are indicated on the voter card sent by mail or on the Élections Québec website.