LORD ASHCROFT: Pollsters ask daft questions at Christmas… but the answers speak volumes about the state of our Government

Pollsters ask a lot of silly questions, especially around Christmas.

The fact that voters think (as I found last week) that Labour’s office party will be a boring affair in a Holiday Inn off the M6, that there will be debate about whether flags should be put on cakes, that Keir Starmer will be the leader most likely to give a boring speech at a festive gathering, and that Labor may not celebrate Christmas at all because they hate our traditions, may not, on the face of it, add much to human knowledge.

But this tells us quite a bit about the situation the Government finds itself in.

My first poll of 2025 put Labor comfortably first. This month we see him ranked fourth for sportsmanship, behind Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens.

The reasons for the decline are not difficult to trace. Winter fuel shortages, failure to control illegal immigration and its consequences, a stagnant economy, the quest for Net Zero through affordable energy, ominous proposals such as two-tier policing, mandatory digital ID and curtailing jury trials, and a massive increase in taxes without evidence have all had negative consequences.

When we look at some of Labour’s recent decisions, which seem almost calculated to upset the voters who put them into office, it is tempting to recall historian Robert Conquest’s Third Law of Politics, which states that ‘the behavior of any bureaucratic organization can best be understood by assuming that it is controlled by a secret group of its enemies’.

But I think Labor knows exactly what it is doing and is doing it deliberately.

At first glance, the change in surveys throughout the year is shocking. But from another perspective, things have barely changed. January saw the Conservatives and Reform take 45 per cent of the vote and the Left (Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru) take 55 per cent. This month I found the Right at 47 percent and the Left at 53 percent. From a survey perspective, the two results are essentially the same.

Meanwhile, voters see Nigel Farage as the leader most likely to disappear into the pub by Christmas lunch – but also the leader most likely to burn said lunch if he can’t quit cooking

The real problem for the Labor Party, then, is not to prevent its voters from drifting to the Right, but to remain the dominant party of the Left. Labor is desperate to avoid the fate that befell the Conservative Party, which lost seats to Labor as its vote fragmented; the largest piece goes to Reformation, not the official opposition.

If Labor’s vote is split between the Greens, Liberal Democrats, nationalists and ‘pro-Gaza independents’, party strategists fear it could reopen the door to conservative forces.

When viewed from this perspective, Labour’s actions make more sense. The Budget measures to raise taxes on working people to fund more welfare spending – and in particular the decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap – were not just a capitulation to Labor backbenchers, but they were certainly that.

It was a strategic decision: the latest sign that the party has effectively given up on centre-right voters who may have backed Labor last year in a bid to lift the Conservative Party out of their misery.

Other signals that Labor is trying to jump on the Leftist bandwagon include hints of scrapping some aspects of Brexit and recognition of a Palestinian state.

It will be interesting to see how much of Shabana Mahmood’s plan to tighten immigration rules becomes law in the new year – which many on the Left see as a deplorable attempt to deceive pro-Reform voters. Whether any of this will work for Labor is another question. But you can see what happens.

A separate struggle for supremacy continues on the right. Nigel Farage (who, FYI, voters see as the man most likely to get lost in the pub by Christmas lunch, but also most likely to burn said lunch if he can’t get out of cooking) has been less in the spotlight of late, unless you count stories about remarks he may or may not have made at school.

I’ve found that people are often reluctant to judge someone by what they said 40 years ago – they certainly wouldn’t want to be judged that way themselves – but the storm helps Labor’s aim of reminding Left-leaning voters why they should get behind the party it claims is the only party that can stop Farage from becoming Prime Minister.

Kemi Badenoch was voted as the person most likely to be good at helping tidy up after Christmas lunch and buying presents; It’s also the most popular option for a kiss under the mistletoe.

Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch (likely to help with recovery after Christmas lunch and be good for buying gifts – also the most popular choice for a kiss under the mistletoe) is on the rise. After reaching this point in his budget response, his ratings rose and he began to take a distinctly Conservative stance on the economy, where the Reformation was shaky. But the Conservatives have the trickiest task of navigating this Left-Right divide.

Supporters of Left parties overwhelmingly say the Left party would be their second choice.

But a third of Reform voters would vote for a non-Conservative party if Reform did not stand, and more than half of existing Conservatives choose a non-Reform party as their second choice; This includes the Liberal Democrats and a large section of people who will choose Ed Davey (who will probably insist on playing stupid games, but will also deliver a present to an elderly neighbour).

This is a sobering consideration for those still pushing for some sort of Tory-Reform deal or alliance.

Earlier in the year, the Reformation was canceled amid a rising tide of anger; Finally, the Conservatives were making progress by diagnosing problems and proposing solutions.

The Right must not fall into the trap of retreating into his own camp as Starmer retreats into his own.

Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is here LordAshcroftPolls.com. X/Facebook @LordAshcroft