Mahmood expected to axe permanent UK settlement for asylum seekers
Shabana Mahmood has vowed to “do whatever it takes” to secure Britain’s borders. It’s now becoming clear what this looks like.
The Home Secretary is expected to tell Parliament on Monday that successful asylum seekers will only be allowed to stay in the UK temporarily.
They will be sent back when their home countries are safe. Their situation will be reviewed regularly during the interim period.
His declaration is likely to be a warning that the era of permanent protection is over as he outlines the government’s new policy aimed at deterring people from crossing the Channel illegally to seek a new life in the UK.
The move comes after the Home Office announced that nearly 50,000 illegal immigrants had been removed or deported from British territory since Labor came to power.
New figures published show a 23% increase in the total number of expulsions or deportations compared to the 16-month period under the Conservative Party until July 2024.
Government insiders describe Mahmood’s latest decision as a “significant change”.
It’s a policy lifted from Denmark, where a government led by centre-left Social Democrats presided over one of Europe’s toughest asylum and immigration systems.
An earlier assumption regarding the extension of leave in the system was canceled. Refugees are usually granted two-year temporary residence permits, and when these permits expire they must re-apply for asylum.
The path to citizenship has become longer and more difficult, even for those who have been granted multiple extensions.
Fans, including Mahmood, point out that as policies get tougher, the poll scores of the Social Democratic party rise, while the polls of the populist right-wing movement, the People’s Party, drop.
He believes that if the Labor Party does not make similar decisions here, “dark forces” may develop.
I announced last week that the Minister of Internal Affairs did this. Sent senior officials to Denmark To see what lessons can be learned from their system.
It wasn’t just the temporary status for refugees that caught the attention of the authorities.
They also looked at Denmark’s greater restrictions on “family reunification” when refugees want to bring their spouses, partners or children into the country.
He believes Denmark’s policies are discouraging people from seeking asylum and is impressed that successful applications are at their lowest level in 40 years.
And he believes what he sees as the current generosity of the UK system is acting as a magnet and diverting small boat passages.
But not without controversy.
Four years ago, the Danish government planned to send about 200 refugees back to Syria even as the civil war raged because it said parts of Damascus were safe.
He will certainly face opposition from some within the Labor Party ranks.
When it emerged that Denmark was being used as a model for tougher rules in the UK, Labor MP Clive Lewis told the BBC that progressive voters could migrate to more left-wing parties such as the Greens as a result.
And these aspects of the Danish system reflect “the talking points of the far right.”
Nottingham MP Nadia Whittome, also on the left of the Labor Party, said following Denmark’s path would be a “moral, political and electoral dead end”.
But I understand that Shabana Mahmood will have a warning to her skeptical colleagues.
He will argue that although some of his reforms may seem extreme, the alternative could be a further increase in support for Reform UK.
He is expected to say, “If you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.”
The Home Secretary believes that Denmark is an exemplary example because its asylum policy, summarized as “less in, more out”, has been achieved while remaining within the European Convention on Human Rights.
But both he and his Danish counterpart, Rasmus Stokland, want to see reforms and rein in “activist judges” who might place greater emphasis on ECHR provisions on family life rights when deciding deportation cases.
He is expected to address this issue in his statement to Parliament on Monday.
Both Reform UK and the Conservatives argue that leaving the Convention altogether would be more effective.
Reform UK says that instead of granting temporary status to refugees, they will detain and deport those arriving across channels.
Conservatives argue the boats cannot be stopped unless a Rwanda-style plan is reintroduced.
While the Labor government condemns this as a ruse, they see it as a deterrent.
The home secretary is likely to admit on Monday that the crisis at Britain’s borders is “out of control”.
Merely adopting new policies is unlikely to regain the trust of voters enticed by Nigel Farage.
But if the home secretary’s stance actually reduces the numbers, he will hope his party will be allowed to make its voice heard not just on immigration but on other policies as well.
