number S&P 500 Companies in the $1 trillion club have grown significantly since then Apple Became the first US company to exceed $1 trillion market value In August 2018.
At the time of writing this article, Nvidia and Apple’s market cap is over $4 trillion; Alphabet And Microsoft over $3.6 trillion; Amazon $2.5 trillion; And Meta Platforms, broadcom, Tesla’sAnd Berkshire Hathaway all over $1 trillion.
Saudi Arabian Oil And Taiwan SemiconductorProducing They also have a market capitalization of over $1 trillion, but these companies are not included in the S&P 500.
Here’s why the S&P 500’s $1 trillion club could easily grow from nine companies to 18 companies over the next five years, and what market concentration means for your financial portfolio.
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In recent years, large tech-focused companies have outpaced broader market gains, leaving the S&P 500 concentrated in just a handful of stocks. Approximately 20 companies make up 50% of the index; Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft combined make up more than a quarter of the S&P 500.
Eli Lilly(NYSE: LLY), Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT), JPMorgan Chase(NYSE:JPM), Visa (NYSE:V), Seer(NYSE:ORCL), ExxonMobil(NYSE:XOM)And netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX) They all have demands to join the $1 trillion club by the end of 2030.
Eli Lilly, Walmart and JPMorgan Chase are already knocking on the door of this milestone, and Eli Lilly actually briefly crossed the barrier. But to surpass $1 trillion will require larger gains from Visa, ExxonMobil, Oracle and Netflix.
Visa alone could reach this milestone in earnings growth. The payment processor turns about half of its sales into after-tax profit. And it has these features: domestic and international network It needs to grow its sales and earnings by double digits, meaning its valuation could squeeze and still top $1 trillion in five years.
ExxonMobil’s earnings have declined over the past few years due to falling oil prices. But even accounting for those lower earnings, the stock finished 2025 at an all-time high. ExxonMobil’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is still 17.6. ExxonMobil’s efficiency improvements and cost reductions position it well to generate cash flow during higher oil prices; This could attract investor interest and justify a higher P/E ratio for ExxonMobil, potentially pushing it above $1 trillion in the coming years.
Oracle’s stock price fell as investors worried about leveraged bets on its artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure that turned Oracle from a stable and solid company to a free cash flow negative. But Oracle’s bet is more calculated than the market expected. Oracle’s current remaining performance obligations, which are essentially potential revenue from contracts, are tied to OpenAI. But Oracle doesn’t need OpenAI to succeed because AI-focused data centers will be in demand if capacity is restricted. Oracle’s earnings and stock price have the potential to grow at a rapid rate as it begins to make money from building infrastructure.
Netflix sold because its valuation was a bit expensive, and it’s taking a risk by trying to buy it Warner Bros. Discovery. Too often, short-term-minded investors shoot first and ask questions later; This is a mistake when it comes to high-margin cash cows like Netflix. Warner Bros. With Discovery’s content and streaming integration with HBO, Netflix needs to have multiple tools to use to accelerate earnings and introduce new ad-free and ad-supported streaming options; This makes it poised to double or triple in the next five years.
The composition of the S&P 500 could undergo drastic changes if high-profile private companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI (maker of ChatGPT), and Anthropic (maker of Claude) go public through initial public offerings (IPOs).
Estimates vary, but SpaceX could have an IPO next year for around $800 billion.
OpenAI raised $40 billion at a $300 billion valuation in early 2025, but OpenAI’s valuation may be much higher now; reports indicate that the company is in talks to raise it to $100 billion at a valuation of $830 billion.
Anthropic may also go public next year, but it will take a long time for its value to reach $1 trillion by 2030, so it has been removed from this list.
However, as Motley Fool co-founder and CEO Tom Gardner notes, investors should focus on the fundamentals and recognize that these high-profile AI stocks will have plenty of marketing collateral behind them should they go public; This could make valuations unattractive for investors looking to buy shares in the public market, at least until fundamentals catch up with valuations.
The IPOs of SpaceX and OpenAI, combined with higher valuations of Eli Lilly, Walmart, JPMorgan Chase, Visa, ExxonMobil, Oracle and Netflix, could potentially double the number of companies in the $1 trillion club over the next five years. Dark horse candidates to join the club include: Advanced Micro Devices, MasterCard, Palantir Technologies, AbbVie, Bank of AmericaAnd Costco Wholesale.
With the growth of large companies, investors must recognize the risk involved in investing in index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are the heaviest, especially if there is overlap between their individual holdings and larger holdings in those funds.
Concentration risk is a double-edged sword that can boost earnings when big companies are doing well, while also magnifying volatility and fueling a sell-off in the stock market. The fact that many of the largest S&P 500 companies are making major investments in artificial intelligence and cloud computing suggests that the theme will continue to push broader indexes to new highs or be the driving force behind sell-offs in the coming years.
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Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. JPMorgan Chase is Motley Fool Money’s advertising partner. Daniel Foelber He has positions in Nvidia and Oracle and has the following options: Short $240 calls on Oracle in March 2026. The Motley Fool owns AbbVie, Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Costco Wholesale, JPMorgan Chase, Mastercard, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir Technologies, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Tesla, Visa, Walmart and Warner Bros. He holds positions at Discovery and recommends them. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a feature disclosure policy.
