Europe is backed into a corner

It will take years for their commitment to increase their defense expenditures to trust the United States to protect an aggressive expansion from Russia.

While Trump announced that it is intending to increase the basic tariff rate to 15 percent to 15 percent at the weekend, they need to take additional tariffs to take a 30 percent threat of tariffs and retaliation measures they can take seriously.

Aside from the 200 agreements, which he once said that it was once done, Trump, he is looking forward to “he did not make 90 agreements in 90 days”.

In addition, it was supported by the swimming of the US financial markets collected from their sales in April, when Trump first introduced the “mutual” tariffs through the congress of a great beautiful bill of invoices.

In April, he postponed the imposition of tariffs until July (and then postponed again until the next month) because the bond market was “a little uncomfortable”.

Now the markets settled, Sharemarket has released a record height. The reason for this is that they do not believe that investors will follow the mutual tariffs threatened – “Trump Always Chickens” or Taco trade – or any bad impact from tariffs, most importantly, inflation has not yet emerged in economic data.

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Apparently no one knows what Trump himself can send the truth in his social social, so the markets acts as nothing until something happens. August 1-for the new tariffs can be a moment of waking up for the new deadline.

However, the peace of mind in the markets is to encourage Trump to be more aggressive and more impatient.

So far, so far, there is a risk that he will monitor the personal preference of the pain of calm sounds in the cabinet to negotiate agreements and to offer his trade partners unilaterally with the ultimatomas “buy or leave”.

Although the EU still seems to believe that Trump’s last threat was a negotiating maneuver, they have prepared counter -measures if it was not.

The EU prepared a list of US exports in response to sectoral tariffs on basic tariffs and steel, aluminums and cars, covering US exports of approximately € 21 billion ($ 37 billion). The products in this list contained chicken, motorcycles and clothes.

There is another list of Trump’s mutual tariffs that target € 72 billion more products from the plane to alcohol. In addition, although he wants to distribute the instrument he designed in response to the flood of cheap imports from China, he has actions that can reach the “Anti-Koza instrument” or service trade.

The total trade between the US and the EU and the EU is about $ 1 trillion ($ 1.5 trillion), the EU’s trading surplus in goods of 235 billion dollars, but is enjoying a trade deficit in about $ 75 billion.

In the negotiations with the US, the US has sought exemption from Trump’s tariffs for key sectors such as aircraft and alcohol in exchange for a promise of buying more US goods, especially weapons and LNG, weapons and LNG, which will narrow the US goods trade deficit.

Von Der Leyen said the EU was ready to continue to negotiate on Saturday, but was ready to consider retaliation. Applying a 30 percent tariff to EU exports, the Atlantic businesses and consumers on both sides of the loss of basic transatlantic supply chains, he said.

The EU’s dilemma includes Trump’s view of non -tariff policies and trade barriers, valuable taxes, and a regulation of digital activity to protect consumers. No nation -state – or the EU’s case would not surrender the gathering of 27 nation -states – and not allow Trump to dictate internal policy environments.

After seeing what Trump is doing to Brazil, after threatening a 50 percent tariff ratio in response to unjust trade barriers (although the US is a surplus with Brazil), former President Jair Bolsonaro – an enthusiastic Trump supporter – allegedly known that Trump could not cause the trade of goods.

Therefore, a trade conflict potential is very important. The EU will have to decide whether Trump will endure the demands of Trump by damaging its industries and the sovereignty of its states.

Alternatively, he can imitate China and allow the conflict to rise to the point where a trade embargo threatens, which will scare Bejesus from the financial market participants and open the White House, as China’s taste-Tot tariffs do.

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The threats of Trump’s trade sanctions against America’s friends and enemies, without discrimination, fired a struggle by the EU and others to secure new markets. Europe, non -Chinese Asia Pacific and Latin America has the potential for the emergence of a new trade block.

Most of the Trump and the hand -selected cabinet are protectionists and insulatings. At the end of the trade wars on everyone, if most of the rest of the world decides to trade freely among themselves, he can take what he wants.