The key moments that could ‘decide fate of Keir Starmer’ next year
Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership faces a critical test next May; A leading pollster predicts Labor will suffer serious losses in the UK.
Lord Robert Hayward has warned of heavy defeats in the English council elections on May 7, 2026, a loss in the Welsh Senedd and a “coup” in the Scottish Parliament.
Such dismal results could reignite questions about Sir Keir’s standing in the party leadership, following anonymous briefings by allies against potential rivals that hit the headlines in November.
Elections have been confirmed for London and metropolitan areas including Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire, although some councils are expected to postpone elections until 2027 to reorganize local government.
Although these areas have recently been dominated by Labour, Lord Hayward said the party was on course for “very, very large” losses to Reform UK, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and pro-Gaza Independent candidates in east London.
He said even the Conservatives could pick up seats in London, but the Conservatives’ overall outcome would depend largely on whether elections are held in boroughs where they won massively in 2021 but now face huge losses.
Gains in London councils such as Westminster or Barnet could help strengthen Kemi Badenoch’s position as Conservative leader; That position has begun to look more secure in recent months as his personal polls have improved.
Lord Hayward of the Conservative Party said: “A few months ago May 7 looked set to be decisive for both the Labor and Conservative leaders.
“As we head into 2026, the May elections look set to decide the fates of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”
He added that with Labor and possibly the Conservatives on track to lose seats in May, there would be no clear winner but a “cacophony of winners”.
Lord Hayward said reform starting from a low base was likely to yield the most gains, but a number of other parties were expected to claim some form of victory tonight and a clear picture would perhaps only emerge in the days after the election.
Despite the significant changes that could happen in England, Lord Hayward suggested that it may be the results in Scotland and Wales that are of the most long-term significance for England.
Last year Labor expected to replace the SNP and return to power at Holyrood in 2026.
However, this now looks unlikely as Lord Hayward suggests the party is in the process of a “major coup” while the SNP, Greens and Reform may be in good shape.
The picture becomes more complex when considering the change in the electoral system in Wales, the increase in the size of the Senedd and the lowering of the voting age to 16.
Particularly in light of the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are set to do well at the expense of Labor.
The success of the SNP and Plaid Cymru could also have constitutional implications beyond the election’s impact on the Labor leadership.
The SNP could restart calls for a new independence referendum if it wins a majority at Holyrood, while Plaid Cymru’s big gains could lead to more vocal calls for more powers for Wales.
