Tanzanian president poised to retain power as rivals barred from election | Tanzania

Tanzania’s president appears on track to strengthen his grip on the country as a general election is set for Wednesday amid rapidly intensifying repression and exclusion of opposition candidates.

Former vice president Samia Suluhu Hassan, who took office following the death of her predecessor John Magufuli in 2021, left nothing to chance in her first presidential and parliamentary election test.

Candidates of the two main opposition parties in the East African country have been disqualified, opposition meetings have been banned and government critics have been kidnapped, killed or arrested.

Analysts say they expect voter apathy, possible unrest as opposition voices are suppressed, and further consolidation of Hassan and his ruling CCM party.

“Tanzania will never be the same after this election,” said Deus Valentine, executive director of the Center for Strategic Litigation, a nonprofit organization based in Dar es Salam, a commercial port city on Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast. “We’re either entering a completely new paradigm or level of impunity, or we’re entering a completely new level of civil challenge. Something will give.”

Hassan began his term by rolling back some of Magufuli’s authoritarian and repressive policies, including lifting a ban on political rallies and making moves to compromise with the opposition. Meanwhile, it gained local and international approval.

But he later backtracked and his administration was accused of leading a horrific return to the oppression of the past and dashing hopes for lasting change.

In June, after the reported disappearance and torture of two activists, Boniface Mwangi of Kenya and Agather Atuhaire of Uganda, UN experts He called on the Tanzanian government “an immediate end to the enforced disappearances of political opponents, human rights defenders and journalists”.

More than 200 cases of enforced disappearance have been recorded in Tanzania since 2019, UN experts said.

The wave of kidnappings that took place before this election increased the public’s anger towards Hasan. One of those kidnapped was Humphrey Polepole, a CCM insider who resigned from his post as ambassador to Cuba and became a vocal critic of the government, the CCM, and Hassan’s leadership. His family said he was abducted by unidentified assailants earlier this month.

Tanzanian police in June dismissed Claims that kidnapping and disappearance cases are increasing and that some of them are fabricated. Hassan has ordered an investigation into reports of abductions in the past, but the findings have not been made public.

Pressure on opposition parties has intensified in recent months. In April, Tundu Lissu, vice president of the leading opposition party Chadema, was arrested and charged with treason and cybercrime. It was stated that his party, which led calls for a boycott of the elections unless electoral systems were reformed, was later disqualified from participation.

Last month, Luhaga Mpina, leader of another opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo, was also disqualified, meaning Hassan will only run against less well-known candidates from smaller parties.

“The political environment leading up to the elections remains sharply polarized, with opposition leaders facing legal harassment and civic space restricted,” Nicodemus Minde, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, told a seminar organized by the institute.

He said the absence of Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo from the ballot made this election “arguably the least competitive” since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1992.

CCM and its predecessor, TANU, have governed the country since independence in 1961, making it one of Africa’s longest-ruling political forces.

Hassan’s administration has been praised for Tanzania’s economic growth and low inflation under his rule. He is campaigning on promises to focus on strengthening health care and education, and to deliver economic power to improve lives and promote inclusive growth.

“We are focusing on the people in our current and future manifestos,” Hassan said at a campaign rally in the eastern district of Temeke last week. “Our goal is to ensure that every Tanzanian has the opportunity to participate meaningfully in the economic growth of the country.”

Among those allowed to run against CCM is Salum Mwalimu, Lissu’s running mate in the 2000 presidential election. He is running for the Chaumma party, which consists of many Chadema refugees.

Mwalimu’s campaign promises include reforms to government systems, including the drafting of a new constitution. “Tanzanians should expect a sea change from our party, which is determined to transform the country,” he said when he went to collect presidential nomination forms at the national election commission last month.

Observers say Hassan’s opponents lack the resources and name recognition to compete with the nationwide party machinery that the CCM has built up over decades and leveraged to consolidate its power.

In the 2020 presidential elections, Magufuli won with 84.4% of the votes, while Lissu came second with 13.04%.

More than 37 million people have the right to vote. Separate votes are cast for the president, members of parliament and local politicians.