Venezuela military looks strong on paper but experts say it’s hollowed out

As tensions rise between Washington and the Maduro regime, experts told Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s military may look formidable on paper but has been hollowed out by years of corruption, corruption and political control. While they say Venezuela would not be able to stop a determined U.S. attack, a broader operation would be much more complex than the White House suggests.

International lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat Isaias Medina, who condemned his own government at the International Criminal Court, described Venezuela as a criminalized state dominated by drug trafficking networks.

“Venezuela today resembles a castle built on sand wrapped around a criminal regime,” he said, adding that any hypothetical U.S. action “is not about evicting a terrorist cartel entrenched next door and invading a country.”

Medina warned that Venezuela’s dense civilian population – which is also a victim of the regime – required extreme caution. “The only acceptable approach is extreme bias towards containment and longer operational timelines, and abandoning targets that cannot be hit cleanly.”

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He said the army’s capabilities looked better on paper than in reality, equipment was rusting from lack of maintenance, and thousands of politically appointed generals were cut off from an estimated 100,000 lower-ranking troops who could abandon their posts under pressure.

Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center for Cyber ​​and Technology Innovation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s most significant threat lies in its air-sea systems, and even those can be quickly eliminated.

“You have to break this,” he said. “There is an air-sea portion that would likely impact our offensive operations,” including fighter jets, limited naval ships and Russian-made surface-to-air missiles.

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Soldiers with painted faces march during a military parade to celebrate the 205th anniversary of Venezuela’s independence in Caracas, Venezuela, July 5, 2016. (Carlos Jasso/Reuters)

But Montgomery said the United States could quickly neutralize them. “Logically speaking, we can eliminate the air and sea threat to U.S. forces by day one or two of the campaign plan,” he said.

Any US plan to target cocaine production would begin with “simultaneous attacks on airports, aircraft, and air defense weapon systems to ensure they do not respond to US attacks on other assets.”

When asked whether Venezuela might retaliate after such attacks, Montgomery said: “Not against air strikes. No.”

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Members of the Venezuelan Bolivarian National Guard stand in formation while conducting an increased security patrol along Lake Maracaibo in Maracaibo, Venezuela, amid rising tensions between Venezuela and the United States on October 26, 2025. (Isaac Urrutia/Reuters)

Montgomery emphasized that air defenses could be eliminated quickly, but a ground operation would be a very different story. “They have a small, professional army… 65 to 70,000 people, most of whom probably don’t want to; they didn’t join the army to fight,” he said. The country also has a massive militia whose motivation is tied to loyalty to Maduro.

But geography and scale make a ground operation a nightmare scenario. “Venezuela is probably twice the geographic size of California; it has 35 to 40 million citizens,” Montgomery said. he said. “This would be an extremely challenging ground operation, especially if it turns into counterinsurgency.”

He added bluntly: “I wouldn’t do that today. I don’t recommend it.”

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A Venezuelan Air Force K8W aircraft crew flies during the 2025 Venezuelan industrial aviation expo at Libertador Air Base in Maracay, Aragua State, Venezuela, on November 29, 2025. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

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Montgomery supports an air campaign that he believes would be more effective than current naval tactics. He cited the U.S. Navy’s experience commanding anti-drug operations: “Each of those 21 ships could be pulled aside by a mix of Navy and Coast Guard units and helicopters.” But intelligence often proved unreliable.

Despite years of decay, Venezuela still has a large and unbalanced mix of military hardware. Analysts say this won’t stop the U.S. campaign, but it could complicate the early stages.

Soldiers participated in an exercise conducted by the Bolivarian National Armed Forces to train citizens in the use of weapons in Yagua, Venezuela, on September 20, 2025, after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro deployed the military to communities across the country as part of a national outreach initiative aimed at training both enlisted citizens and residents amid rising tensions with the United States. (Juan Carlos Hernandez/Reuters)

Its inventory reportedly includes 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad rocket systems, and an estimated 6-10 flyable Su-30MK2 jets. Air defense systems include S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M.

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Venezuela’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia and China continue to worry US officials.

“The numbers show that only 20 percent of Venezuelans approve of this regime,” said Jorge Jraissati, head of the Economic Participation Group, adding that “the will of the people has not been respected” for more than a decade because Caracas is aligned with “anti-Western regimes that are destabilizing the region.”