Middle East calm frays as Iran kills protesters, Israel weighs next steps and Trump signals intervention

Months after a 12-day war between Israel and Iran, tensions are rising again as Iran kills protesters, Israel weighs new military action and President Donald Trump signals the United States may intervene.

Trump increased pressure on Tehran this week. Will threaten US with action if Iran takes action Security forces violently suppressed the protests that started after the country’s national currency lost value.

“If Iran shoots and brutally kills peaceful protesters, the United States will come to their rescue,” Trump said on social media, adding that the United States was “locked and loaded.”

But while Trump’s language suggests a readiness to use force, analysts say Washington still has options other than direct military action.

Former US ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said Washington should act quickly to expand demonstrators’ internet access and prepare for potential political change.

“Support protesters with internet access and prepare now to advise and assist with the transition,” Shapiro wrote to X.

Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that Washington has options other than direct military action.

“The two most powerful things the United States and its close partners can do without military intervention are to facilitate the secure flow of information to protesters and to blind security forces,” Goldberg wrote of X.

THE ISRAEL-IRAN WAR IS NOT OVER, IT HAS ENTERED A DANGEROUS PAUSE

Human rights groups reported five to eight murders linked to recent unrestMore than 30 people were injured and more than 100 people were arrested as demonstrations spread to dozens of cities across the country.

The White House did not specify what form any intervention might take. Past US responses to unrest in Iran have generally been as follows: limited to sanctions and others Despite adopting non-kinetic measures, Trump has recently shown a willingness to authorize direct military actions, including attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, operations against ISIS in Nigeria following reports of mass killings of Christians, and actions targeting alleged drug traffickers near Venezuela.

TRUMP SAYS AT THE END OF THE HIGH-MOUNT MEETING THAT HE WILL ‘TOP’ IRAN IF THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS REBUILDED

Hundreds of protesters took to the streets, marching against the Iranian regime. (Simay Azadi)

Iranian officials responded harshly to Trump’s words, warning that US intervention would risk wider regional conflict and endanger American forces.

Senior Iranian national security official Ali Larijani said US intervention would destabilize the region and threaten American interests.

“Trump must understand that US intervention in this internal issue will destabilize the entire region and destroy American interests,” Larijani said in his article to X. “The American people should know that it was Trump who started this adventure and should pay attention to the safety of their soldiers.”

The speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagir Galibaf, warned that if the United States intervened, “all American bases and forces in the entire region will be legitimate targets.”

Iranian officials acknowledged legitimate economic difficulties but moved quickly to frame the unrest as externally caused; This was a narrative that hardliners intensified after Trump’s warning.

TRUMP WILL SHOOT IRAN ‘WITHOUT QUESTION’ IF IRAN RESTARTS ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM

Human rights groups say the crackdown has been accompanied by a sharp increase in state repression. Between 1,500 and 2,000 people have been executed by the Iranian regime since the June war, most of them secretly, according to human rights organizations that monitor the country.

Protests broke out over rising prices and depreciation of the currency. The Iranian rial fell to record lows against the US dollar, while inflation rose to 42.2% in December; This has increased the economic pressure caused by international sanctions and years of mismanagement.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently described the moment as an existential framework, saying he thought the country was in “all-out war” with the United States, Israel and Europe. He claimed that the Iranian military had become stronger following the June conflict, according to The Times of Israel.

“Our beloved military forces are doing their job powerfully,” Pezeshkian said. he said. “So if they want to attack, they will naturally face a more determined response.”

Although Israel has not announced any new strikes, Israeli officials have made clear that they view any efforts by Iran to rebuild its nuclear or ballistic missile programs as a red line following the June conflict that severely degraded Iran’s air defenses. It was reported that Netanyahu raised the issue of a second round of attacks to destroy Iranian missiles in his meeting with Trump last week.

Protesters march in downtown Tehran, Iran, December 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency/AP Images)

Trump made his position clear when asked whether he would support a new Israeli attack on Iran.

“If they continue with missiles? Yes. Nuclear? Fast. One will be ‘Yes, absolutely’; the other will be ‘We’ll do it right away,'” Trump said.

Since the end of the conflict, Iranian officials and state-run media have signaled a push to restore and expand the country’s ballistic missile capability, even as damage from the war disrupted production facilities, launch infrastructure and supply chains. Western and Israeli officials have warned that Tehran is trying to rebuild its missile forces as quickly as possible to restore deterrence and signal resilience after the attacks.

Trump reiterated Washington’s position in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister earlier this week Benjamin NetanyahuHe warned that Iran would face new attacks if it tried to bring back banned capabilities.

Analysts say the combination of domestic unrest and external pressure is putting Tehran in an unstable situation and increasing the risk of miscalculation, even if none of the major players is actively seeking a new war.

Despite the damage to its defenses, Iran retains the ability to retaliate indirectly through missile launches or proxy attacks; these tactics are ones he has used in past conflicts to increase costs for the United States and Israel without triggering a full-scale conflict.

U.S. defense officials have not announced a change in the posture of American forces in the region, although U.S. troops and assets remain on high alert following the June war.

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD FOX NEWS APPLICATION

The conflict severely damaged Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure and killed top military commanders and nuclear scientists; Iran’s missile attacks killed 28 people in Israel. Iran’s response to subsequent US attacks was limited to the firing of missiles at a US air base in Qatar after advance warning.

This relative calm is now under pressure as Iran faces its most serious civil unrest since the war and Trump has signaled a lower threshold for US intervention. This combination risks turning a fragile pause into another flashpoint.