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Nate Silver surprised Democrats won’t admit they ‘f—– up’ 2024 election

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Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and a leading pollster, expressed surprise that a majority of Democrats are acting as if the party has done nothing wrong in the 2024 elections.

“I’m surprised to some extent by the reluctance of a certain group of Democrats to admit they made mistakes last year,” Silver said. Interview with Semafor Sunday. “For example, if you look at the recent Way to Win autopsy, you are literally arguing that Democrats have done nothing wrong except for not fighting hard enough for progressive ideas. [Joe] For example, Biden’s debate with Trump.”

Silver noted that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) recently canceled releasing its party’s “autopsy” on the 2024 elections, and that the emergence of progressive California Governor Gavin Newsom is evidence that the party is refusing to shift gears.

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Pollster Nate Silver told Semafor that he was surprised that the Democratic Party continued to support progressive policies and candidates after 2024. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“You would think after last year that Democrats would be phobic about nominating another prominent elected official from California with a tired mix of vaguely progressive ideas,” Silver said. “The famous definition of insanity is trying the same thing again and expecting a different result.”

Despite his criticisms, Silver suggested that Newsom and even former Vice President Kamala Harris might have a chance in a hypothetical 2028 race against Vice President J.D. Vance, given President Donald Trump’s unpopularity. But he warned that the “#Resistance” group was quickly becoming a “self-contained epistemic bubble.”

Fox News Digital has reached out to the DNC for comment.

DNC Chairman Ken Martin defended the decision not to publicly release the “autopsy” even though he had previously called for the report earlier this year and said it would be a “distraction” ahead of the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.

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DNC chairman Ken Martin

Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin defended delaying the release of the party “autopsy” on the 2024 election. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

“We have completed a comprehensive review of what is happening in 2024 and are already putting what we have learned into practice,” Martin wrote in a statement. “And we’re winning again, even in places that haven’t turned blue in decades. In our conversations with stakeholders from across the democratic ecosystem, we agree on what’s important, and that’s learning from the past and winning the future.”

“Here’s our North Star: does this help us win? If the answer is no, that’s a distraction from the core mission,” he emphasized.

The “autopsy” came under criticism after reports suggested it would ignore key election questions, such as whether then-President Joe Biden should remain in the race or drop out sooner and whether then-Vice President Kamala Harris is the best person to run in his place.

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Silver’s interview with Semaphore was part of a larger project that had members of the media consider where their 2025 predictions fell flat. While Silver focused largely on the Democratic Party, other media figures interviewed by Semaphore spent more time criticizing industries and government officials for capitulating to the Trump administration.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at Trump's inauguration

The DNC’s report allegedly ignored important election decisions, such as whether then-Vice President Kamala Harris should run to replace President Joe Biden. (Saul Loeb – Pool/Getty Images)

“I was wrong about how the high and mighty would react to the gangsterism coming from the Trump White House. I didn’t expect the most powerful people in American society — the white-shoe lawyers, media executives, tech czars, Hollywood moguls — to cave so quickly and so shamelessly. They will regret it,” said Mark Guiducci, global editorial director at Vanity Fair.

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MS NOW host Joe Scarborough called out the Supreme Court, saying: “I assumed the third branch of government would be more of a check than the first branch on Trump’s efforts to undermine Madison’s balance of powers and powers. I was wrong.”

“I have somehow underestimated the depth of moral depravity among America’s elite and business leaders,” HuffPost editor-in-chief Whitney Snyder said. “Time and time again, intimidating weakness has defined the actions of people in power, whether it’s white-shoe law firms making corrupt deals with the government or tech giants luring Mohammed bin Salman.”

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