Nearly 23 million extra deaths worldwide by 2030 as aid cuts bite, study says

Nearly 23 million additional deaths are expected by 2030 as a result of countries such as the US and UK significantly cutting foreign aid, according to a new report.

Peer-reviewed study prepared by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and published in the journal Influential Health LancetIt finds that cuts to aid programs in 93 countries, 38 of which are in sub-Saharan Africa, would result in 22.6 million extra deaths by 2030.

With this total, including some 5.4 million children under five years of agethe findings were labeled a “humanitarian disaster.”

Dr. Rockefeller Foundation president, who helped finance the report. “These findings give voice to millions of vulnerable people and demonstrate the profound moral cost of the zero-sum approach adopted by many political leaders,” said Rajiv J Shah.

Dr. is also a former administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). “While it will take years to adequately assess the full cost of aid cuts, this early estimate is an urgent call to action,” Shah added. closed by Donald Trump last year.

“This humanitarian catastrophe is not inevitable, but preventing it will require urgent action from all of us,” Dr Shah added.

The ISGlobal report examined the impact of aid cuts in 93 countries, including 38 in sub-Saharan Africa, 21 in Asia, 12 in Latin America, 12 in the Middle East and North Africa and 10 in Europe.

The research is based on analysis of 20 years of development data of these countries, which host approximately 6.3 billion people.

The methodology used also reveals that between 2002 and 2021, foreign aid helped reduce child deaths by 39 percent; reduced HIV/AIDS deaths by 70 percent; and reduced 56 percent of deaths from both malaria And nutritional deficiencies.

Lisa Wise, global outcomes director at Save the Children, one of many NGOs hardest hit by aid cuts, added: “This analysis confirms what we have already seen: aid cuts are not just budget decisions, they are a death sentence for children.

“Aid cuts are already forcing us to close health clinics and nutrition programmes, end protecting girls from violence and halt climate projects at a time when children need them more than ever,” she said.

“The benefits system needs to be updated as global challenges evolve, but the transition to new ways of working needs to be managed properly, rather than making huge cuts without considering the children for whom benefit programs are a lifeline,” Ms Wise added.

international aid I fell for the first time Further significant reductions in aid are expected within six years in 2024 and in both 2025 and 2026, with the US, UK, France and Germany making significant cuts to their aid budgets.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which monitors aid flows from the world’s richest countries. projects It is stated that this aid may decrease by 18 percent between 2024 and 2025.

Particularly devastating for relief efforts in 2025 is Trump’s USAID closureA catastrophic event that chaotically ends financing for many projects in the middle of completion climate resilience programs And health systems in many developing countries.

ISGlobal’s previous research using the same methodology found that dismantling USAID alone could lead to much more. 14 million additional preventable deaths By 2030.

Meanwhile, the UK has reduced its aid budget from 0.5 to 0.3 per cent of Gross National Income from 2027. The British development sector is eagerly awaiting news on this issue. Where exactly will UK benefit cuts fall?NGOs currently expect the announcement to be made in late February.

“Our analysis shows that development aid is among the most effective global health interventions available,” said ISGlobal research coordinator Davide Rasella.

“Withdrawing this support now will not only reverse hard-won progress, but will directly mean millions of preventable adult and child deaths in the coming years,” he added.

The report’s striking findings are supported by numerous stories of devastating cuts to aid programs around the world last year. Independent reported as part of Rethinking Global Aid reporting series

“We are witnessing the impact of aid cuts every day,” said Magnus Corfixen, Oxfam UK’s humanitarian chief. Independent. “People’s lives are affected in every aspect. Food, clean water and healthcare are not a choice or a luxury; they are basic human rights and the foundations of a dignified life.”

Speaking about the impact of aid cuts specifically on responses to the climate crisis, Corfixen added: “When aid is cut, communities not only lose funding; they also lose the tools to help them adapt to the climate crisis. A climate crisis they didn’t create. “Any reduction in support threatens the livelihoods of communities and increases the risk to people’s lives as they face rising temperatures, floods and drought.”

This article was produced as part of The Independent. Rethinking Global Aid project