New 2028 favorite to replace Trump emerges as Iran war slashes support for the President’s right-hand man
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has overtaken J.D. Vance as the favorite to succeed Donald Trump as President.
Rubio’s chance of being elected President in 2028 is 19 percent, on regulated stock market and prediction market site Kalshi.
Vance is currently in second place, tied with Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who both have an 18 percent chance of taking the White House.
Until Tuesday, Vance had a 20 percent chance of becoming President, while Rubio had just under 17 percent.
Vance, meanwhile, maintains a healthy lead at Polymarket, another prediction market and rival for Kalshi, who will replace Trump in 2028.
On that platform, Vance has a 21 percent chance of becoming the next President, Newsom has an 18 percent chance, and Rubio has a 15 percent chance, according to Wednesday’s numbers.
Since the Iran war broke out and Rubio has been central to the administration’s response, the Secretary of State has been bullish on the forecast markets.
So much so that Rubio’s chances of becoming the next President have nearly doubled since the beginning of the war, when Rubio’s chances were around 10 percent.
According to prediction market Kalshi, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s chances of becoming the next President of the United States are currently at their highest at 19 percent.
Vice President J.D. Vance was previously the person with the best chance of being elected President in 2028. Vance is still the favorite at Polymarket, a prediction platform that rivals Kalshi.
President Donald Trump asked donors and advisers their thoughts on comparing Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Vice President J.D. Vance.
Since Trump ordered the capture of Venezuela’s former dictator Nicolás Maduro, Rubio has spent more time in the spotlight as he has been tasked with explaining his position on the administration’s broader foreign policy agenda.
This week the President said the Secretary of State, the son of Cuban refugees, could soon lead a “friendly takeover” of Cuba.
Trump added that Cubans can “trust” Rubio because the former Florida Senator can speak Spanish, which is “always nice and always helpful.”
Meanwhile, Trump said Vance was ‘less enthusiastic’ about the war, noting how different he and the Vice President were ‘philosophically’.
Trump himself has also expressed interest in who will replace him in 2028.
The president has repeatedly asked donors and close advisers for their thoughts on Rubio and Vance, seemingly seeking insight into how they might be viewed as presidential contenders.
A day after launching a war on Iran, Trump asked a room of donors at his Mar-a-Lago mansion what they thought of his two top lieutenants, the Wall Street Journal reported this week.
This wasn’t the first time Trump had questioned his inner circle in this way.
Odds on who will win Kalshi’s 2028 election as of Wednesday afternoon
‘What do you think of JD Vance and Marco Rubio?’ Sources in the room told the WSJ that the President asked the question during a speech.
Attendees loudly applauded Rubio as people ate jumbo crab and ribs, he said. The Secretary of State reportedly received much louder applause than Vance.
Vance, 41, and Rubio, 54, both former senators with different appeals depending on where in the country they come from, are at the center of Trump’s 2028 draw.
Vance is leading in early voting to become the GOP’s 2028 presidential nominee, according to an exclusive poll by the Daily Mail and JL Partners.
19 percent of respondents said Vance was the most influential member of Trump’s inner circle. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ranked second with 12 percent.
