New locations sought for Aussie beef due to China levy
Around 800 million burgers worth of Australian beef may need to be diverted to alternative markets as China imposes import quotas that limit the amount of red meat entering the country.
RaboResearch’s Angus Gidley-Baird says Southeast Asian countries appear to be the best option for extra volume.
A senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank’s research arm said it could be difficult to divert additional beef to Japan and South Korea, while Australia was likely to face stiffer competition from Brazil in the US market in 2026.
China is the world’s largest importer of beef and a preferred destination for Australian products.
But on New Year’s Day, Beijing announced it would impose a 55 percent tariff on beef imports above certain quotas in an effort to protect the local industry.
Australia will impose a tax on everything above 205,000 million tonnes this year under new rules that come into force on January 1.
Mr Gidley-Baird said up to 100,000 tonnes of production may need to be diverted to different markets, with the domestic industry on track to produce high volumes by 2026.
“Distributing Australian products to various markets (most likely through Southeast Asia) appears to be the best solution,” he said.
Australia exported 270,000 tonnes of beef to China in 2024/25, worth around $2.8 billion, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.
The US remains the biggest market for Australia’s red meat, with domestic beef demand actually rising in 2025 despite a 10 per cent tariff imposed by the Trump administration earlier this year.
When this tariff was later removed, Australian products had an advantage over other countries facing border duties.
But with most U.S. tariffs on beef eliminated, competition from South American producers and other importers can be expected to increase in 2026.
Europe could become a bigger destination for Australian beef as Canberra pushes for higher ceilings on red meat quotas as part of ongoing negotiations for an EU-Australia free trade agreement.
Rabobank’s quarterly report on global beef markets predicts that the strong prices and high production volumes seen in late 2025 will continue into early 2026.
“Some weather forecasts suggest that conditions may be drier in the second quarter and if this happens we expect to see an increase in slaughter numbers and a softening in prices,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
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