Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets | Business
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire on Tuesday, generating hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new clients.
Those bets were placed even as Donald Trump’s rhetoric escalated sharply in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday and there was little sign that a ceasefire agreement was imminent. Earlier in the day, Trump had issued a warning on social media that “an entire civilization will die tonight” if Iran does not comply with his demand to open Strait of Hormuz by 8pm ET.
Analysis of public blockchain data from Polymarket using crypto analytics platform Dune shows that at least 50 accounts or wallets responded significantly yes to bets on Tuesday before Trump declared a ceasefire on Truth Social around 6:30 PM ET. These were the first bets made by these wallets.
One of these wallets, created around 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, deposited nearly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The entry fee for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting users’ 0% to 100% chance of what they think might happen. This Polymarket user then withdrew money for a profit of $200,000.
Another, who joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, made gains of $125,500.
Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump’s post, placed a $31,908 yes bet at 33.7 cents and is estimated to have made a profit of $48,500. The high price of yes at the time may have reflected the Pakistani government’s efforts late Tuesday to get Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks.
There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit of making bold threats only to back out during his second term; This is a phenomenon Trump’s critics deride as “Trump always shy” or Taco.
While some users make huge profits, others have to wait for payments because Polymarket called the Iran-US ceasefire agreement “controversial” as Iran still imposes restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continue. It may take up to 48 hours for this dispute to be resolved.
Public blockchain data cannot determine who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets; This means a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these are new users or existing users opening additional accounts.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
The trading pattern of the newly created Polymarket accounts, which place strategic, well-timed bets, mirrors previous eras on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large bets and generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits hours before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured in January. Similar clusters of accounts have repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.
Such bets have repeatedly raised questions among members of Congress as well as the public about whether some investors are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. A bipartisan group of senators and representatives have introduced legislation that would expand the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.
Even Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms in the industry, have said they see a need to expand the definition of insider trading on their platforms.
“That’s why these markets need regulation,” said Georgia State University professor Todd Phillips, who has written on prediction markets and regulation of the industry. “We can’t allow people to trade on insider information and expect other traders to have no problems in these markets.”
