News Analysis: For Trump, celebration and a victory lap in the Middle East

Summoned at the last minute by the US president, the world’s most powerful leaders canceled plans to fly to Egypt on Monday and stood idle on a stage there. Donald Trump’s grand entrance.

They were there to celebrate the significant diplomatic achievement of the United States, which ended hostilities in Gaza after two brutal years of war. But in reality, they were there for Trump, who was taking a victory lap by brokering something, in his words, “extraordinary.”The biggest deal of them all.”

Addressing the presidents, sheikhs, prime ministers and emirs who came to Egypt after his speech at the Knesset in Israel, Trump said, “We achieved what everyone said was impossible, but we finally achieved peace in the Middle East.” “Nobody thought it could get there, and now we’re there.

“The rebuilding begins now; the rebuilding will perhaps be the easiest part,” Trump said. “I think we did the hardest part because the rest is coming together. We all know how to rebuild, and we know how to rebuild better than anyone in the world.”

Achieving a ceasefire in Gaza was a win for Trump Praise from across the political aisle and securing from U.S. friends and foes around the world an elusive peace that officials hope will last long enough to provide space for a broader resolution of Middle East tensions.

Trump’s negotiation Abraham Accords It was during his administration’s first term that he secured diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, a nonpartisan achievement that has been embraced by the subsequent Biden administration. But this October 7 attack on Israeland the subsequent overwhelming response from Israel have disrupted efforts by President Biden and his team to build on their success.

The Trump administration now hopes to get talks back on track to expand the Abraham Accords by striking new agreements between Israel and Lebanon, Syria and, most importantly, Saudi Arabia, effectively ending Israel’s isolation from the Arab world.

But while the current Gaza war appears to be over, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues.

Trump’s diplomatic success stopped the deadliest and most destructive war in history between Israelis and Palestinians, making this achievement even more remarkable. But the record of the conflict shows a cyclical pattern of violence that flares when similar ceasefires are followed by periods of global neglect.

In the first phase of Trump’s peace plan, Israeli defense forces withdrew from half of Gaza’s territory. release of remaining hostages It has been held by Hamas since October 7 in exchange for approximately 2,000 Palestinian detainees and prisoners in Israeli custody.

The next phase — disarmament of Hamas and reconstruction of Gaza — may not actually be “the easiest part,” experts say.

“Phase two depends on Trump holding everyone’s feet to the fire,” said Dennis Ross, a veteran diplomat on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict who served in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton and Obama administrations.

“Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction are interconnected,” he added. “Saudis and Emiratis won’t invest the huge sums that Trump is talking about without it. Otherwise, they know it will happen again.”

While the Israeli government voted to approve the conditions for the hostages’ release, neither side agreed to further stages of the process. Trump’s planThis would allow Hamas militants to grant amnesty on disarmament and promise to stay out of Palestinian rule from now on.

An apolitical, technocratic council will temporarily assume governing responsibilities, and an international body chaired by Trump will oversee the reconstruction of a region where 90% of its structures have been destroyed.

In other words, the document is not just a concession to the defeat of Hamas, but a complete and total surrender that few in the Middle East believe the group will ultimately accept. While Hamas may technically cease to exist, the Muslim Brotherhood, a political movement widespread across the region where Hamas was born, could revive the group in another form.

In Israel, the success of the next phase and the long-delayed internal investigation into the government failures that led to October 7 will likely mark the coming phase. next electionIt could be called up any time next year.

Netanyahu’s local vote There have been dramatic fluctuations throughout the war, and both wings of Israeli society, from the moderate left to the far right, are expected to exploit the country’s growing war fatigue for their own political gain under his leadership.

Netanyahu’s instinct has been to move to the right in every election in Israel over the past decade. But catering to a voting bloc that fuels Israel’s settler drive in the West Bank (a more peaceful Palestinian territory governed by a historically weak Palestinian Authority) risks unleashing another crisis that could quickly upend Trump’s peace efforts.

Crises in the West Bank had previously led to the resumption of war in Gaza.

“Israelis will fear Hamas dominating a Palestinian state, and that’s why it’s so important to disarm Hamas and reform the Palestinian Authority. It would be helpful for Saudi leaders to reach out to the Israeli public,” Ross said.

“The creeping annexation of the West Bank must stop,” Ross added. “Settlement expansion must be stopped and violence by extremist settlers must be stopped.”

In the immediate aftermath of October 7, Netanyahu faced widespread criticism for his years-long strategy of disempowering the Palestinian Authority to the benefit of Hamas, preferring a conflict he knew Israel could win over a peace it could not control.

So the true fate of Trump’s peace plan may ultimately depend on the type of peace Netanyahu chooses to pursue in the heat of an election year.

“You are committed to this peace,” Netanyahu said, standing next to Trump in the Knesset on Monday. The Israeli prime minister added: “I am committed to this peace.”