War-weary Ukrainian troops doubt proposed pact will bring real peace

Exhausted Ukrainian soldiers, who have moved through damp basements and muddy bunkers to fend off constant Russian attacks in nearly four years of war, say knowing they are fighting for a greater cause strengthens their motivation: the defense of their homeland.

But while negotiators are trying to seal a peace deal, soldiers believe that no matter what kind of deal is reached, Russia remains determined to conquer Ukraine—either now or with a new army within a few years.

They also say Kiev must have a sizable army to protect the front line, which is now 800 miles (about 1,300 kilometers) long.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces are now the main obstacle between the peaceful civilian life of Ukrainians and our evil neighbor,” a 40-year-old artilleryman told The Associated Press near the border between Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. He identified himself only by the call sign “Celt”, in accordance with military protocol and on the condition that his exact location not be disclosed.

Soldiers have expressed strong doubts that Moscow can be trusted to comply with any peace agreement. Without significant security guarantees, such as Ukraine’s NATO membership, they and military analysts believe a new Russian invasion with new troops and equipment is inevitable.

Seeing future Russian threats

From a dark, mud-walled moat where he has taken shelter to avoid the buzzing of enemy drones, the Celtic fear that any peace will be short-lived.

“This ceasefire will be short-term, to revive Russia’s forces – for about three or five years – and they will come back,” said the vintage furniture dealer from Kiev, as the sound of thundering artillery guns echoed around him.

Serhii Filimonov, commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion, was worried that the agreement would give Russia everything it needed to attack again.

“I think it would be good for the Russians to end the war, lift the sanctions, prepare for a new war and attack again,” he said. “I do not believe that peace can be achieved without Russia being destroyed or at least without a change of leadership.”

Ukraine’s overstretched manpower

Filimonov described how Russian troops briefly entered the eastern town of Pokrovsk, a key logistics center in the Donetsk region, but were repelled. His brigade had managed to hold its defensive line but was frequently let down by neighboring units filled with inexperienced soldiers.

The Kremlin boasted on Monday that Russian troops had captured the city after more than a year of fighting, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in Paris that fighting was still ongoing.

American military analyst and academic Rob Lee said that a major breakthrough by Russian forces will depend on Ukraine’s ability to increase and maintain the number of its troops.

“Ukraine lacks manpower and reserves,” he said. “All it takes is for a Ukrainian brigade to actually fight and then Russia can advance.”

Ukrainian military expert and fundraiser Taras Chmut told public broadcaster Suspilne on Friday that many battalions at the front consist of only 20 fighters instead of the usual 400-800.

Although Ukraine mobilizes up to 30,000 troops a month, many of them find a way out of service or prove unfit to replace front-line troops.

Important sites still retained

Still, Ukrainian forces managed to hold their ground in places like Pokrovsk, as well as Kupiansk and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, two areas on the frontline that Russia has been trying to capture for more than a year, said Yurii Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles UAV Brigade fighting in the region.

The official said that Russia poured tens of thousands of soldiers into the towns and noted that its failure to capture them “testifies to the high motivation and endurance of the Ukrainian army.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that fighting will not stop unless Ukraine withdraws its troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, which Moscow illegally annexed in September 2022. Russian troops occupy only half of Zaporizhia and Kherson and two-thirds of Donetsk.

The draft US-Russia peace plan stipulated the limitation of the Ukrainian military and the effective withdrawal of Kiev forces from the rest of the Donetsk region. Zelenskyy has since said a revised version could be “feasible”, but it’s unclear what will be in the final document.

Lee, who visits the front regularly, said Russia is advancing faster in 2025 than the previous year, but it is not certain that Moscow will capture the remaining one-third of the Donetsk region in 2026.

“Wherever Russia advances, Ukraine kind of prioritizes defense (and) they can hold out for a long time, but (then) Russia moved in other directions,” Lee said, describing Moscow’s advance in Donetsk, moving in multiple directions simultaneously.

Ukraine will still need Western help

From his muddy trench, the Celtic mocked the proposal to reduce the size of the Ukrainian army, saying it was tantamount to making it easier for Russia to “kill you” later rather than now.

But maintaining an army that Ukraine’s current size is just over 1 million would be nearly impossible without continued support from the West. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has spent almost all of its tax revenues on feeding, clothing, housing and arming its army. The rest of the spending on health care, social programs, education, pensions and energy was financed by Western grants and loans.

Ukrainian-American Concordia University economics professor Glib Buriak said that the European Union has allocated $50 billion in aid from 2024 to 2027 under the Ukraine Assistance Program, but Kiev will need $83.4 billion for the army for 2026 and 2027 and $52 billion for the remaining state expenses.

Buriak said Ukraine’s future financial situation – including its ability to maintain an army – depends on what the peace plan includes regarding Russia’s frozen assets, noting the risk of reduced aid if the war ends.

“How they are managed will determine Ukraine’s financial situation in the coming years,” he said.

Yehor Konovalov contributed to the reporting.