Nigel Farage and Reform UK crush poll – as Kemi Badenoch faces crunch vote | Politics | News
Nigel Farage – if the predictions are correct – will not only be prime minister in a few years’ time, but will also have the largest ever Commons majority. A poll conducted by communications firm PLMR with Electoral Calculus and first shared with the Daily Mail suggests that Reform would take 445 MPs if an election were held now. The threshold for gaining an absolute majority in parliament is 326 MPs. For context – looking at recent landslides – in 1997 Tony Blair’s Labor won 418 seats, in 2019 Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party won 365 and in 2024 Sir Keir Starmer’s Labor won 411 seats.
If the PLMR poll is correct, Labor’s number of MPs will fall from 411 to 73, the Liberal Democrats from 72 to 42, and the Tories (hold your breath!) from 121 to just 7 seats, falling into sixth place even by Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party. Ah! Now let’s move on to the warnings. This survey assumes no tactical voting. With such a vote – more than a third of Labor voters might hold their noses and vote Conservative to keep Reform out – and Farage could be left without a majority.
But the Electoral Account revealed that Reform averaged 36% for the period 10-18 September, compared to 21% for Labor and just 15% for the Conservative Party. All eyes are now on local elections in May, where Sir Keir and Tory boss Kemi Badenoch could be in trouble.
To avoid the threat of a tactical vote depriving Reform of its Commons majority, Farage and his friends need to strike the middle ground that has traditionally transformed elections.
While immigration is a major issue for voters, according to the PMLR survey, it came second to the economy and cost of living for nearly 60% of voters voted as the top issue. The NHS was ranked third for crime, fourth after immigration.
Reform knows it must gain a reputation for sound economic management; His continued performance in local government will make or break that reputation. There is also the enormous threat of tactical voting.
According to Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus: “Tactical anti-Reform voting means Reform’s lead in the polls is not as good as it seems, as the party could lose dozens of seats as many voters will vote for any candidate without a light blue badge.”
However, Labor risks splitting voters towards the Greens and Jeremy Corbyn, while the Conservative Party’s votes are increasingly bleeding to both Reform and the Liberal Democrats as the ‘broad church’ the Conservatives once valued is fast becoming an electoral liability.
With a volatile electorate and the age of social media, much will depend on personality as much as competence, authority as much as performance. Reform now needs to extend this leadership into next year and beyond the May local elections.
After this, the Reformation’s leadership becomes – if not unassailable – at least formidable.
