Not Elon Musk, shareholders have most to lose if the Tesla Chief fails to achieve milestones of $1 trillion pay package
Billionaire technocrat Elon Musk will likely get a big paycheck and increased stake in Tesla even if he hits the toughest goals in his $1 trillion pay package from the automaker, but it’ll be shareholders who will get the short end of the stick, according to a Fortune report.
The $1 trillion payment package, approved on November 6, 2025, could make Elon Musk the first trillionaire in the world, but the report states that even if he manages to receive the entire 13-figure payment, the world’s richest man will still take home a large amount.
Why and how? The package consists of 12 layers that “unlock” when the Tesla chief reaches a milestone. But the report points out a key quirk: The lows are easily achievable, and once “unlocked,” provide Elon Musk with an almost guaranteed payout regardless of whether the tougher goals are met.
How does Elon Musk’s payment structure work?
According to the report, the package delivers “performance milestones” spread across 12 valuation and operational targets spanning 10 years.
For financial goals, Tesla must first reach a market cap of $2 trillion and grow to $8.5 trillion in tranches of $500 billion each over the entire period; and Ebitda levels will reach from 50 billion dollars to 400 billion dollars. In terms of operational targets, the delivery of Tesla cars, robotaxis, humanoid robots and autonomous driving software are the main sales targets.
Each time Elon Musk reaches his goal, he will receive 35.312 million shares, or about 1% of Tesla’s restricted stock, above his current 16% stake. A total of 424 million shares ($1 trillion in share value) are available to achieve all targets.
The share has two vesting periods; these are carried out in the first five years until the beginning of 2033 and in the next five years until the end of 2035.
Will Elon Musk achieve all goals?
According to the report, this probability is very low. For example, one goal requires the robotaxi fleet to reach 1 million; currently the company only has 2,000 on the road. Moreover, in terms of stock valuation, reaching the second-highest level of $2.5 trillion would mean that company shares would need to rise by 85% within 10 years; This is a huge number!
But he added that lower targets are “easy,” which means Elon Musk will still make good money. For example, it needs to sell a total of 20 million Tesla vehicles in 10 years; the company has already sold 8 million, making the actual requirement 12 million. Over the past four quarters, Tesla has already delivered 1.9 million cars, for an annual average of 2 million cars; He added that he could ring the bell of this target with a minimum increase by the sixth year.
Another example is the goal of increasing the valuation to $2 trillion. Elon Musk had previously boosted the stock by building expectations (e.g. robotaxi, fully autonomous driving, etc.) and all he had to do was hold the stock at or above $2 trillion for six months and within the last 30 days to guarantee the payout.
Do Tesla shareholders have much to lose?
According to the report, Elon Musk is expected to earn an average income of $900 billion, that is, $90 million every year. Shareholders, on the other hand, will gain only 5.9 percent annually as the valuation of shares increases from $334 to $585 in 10 years.
Elon Musk will make a windfall even against other big names. By comparison, Amazon’s Andy Jassy earned $40 million a year, Goldman Sachs’ Jamie Dimon earned $39 million, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang earned $34 million, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg earned $27.2 million, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella earned $79 million, Alphabet’s Sundar Pichai earned $10.7 million, and Apple’s Tim Cook earned $75 million.
At its worst, if Tesla shares end with a market cap of $1.8 trillion, or below $2 trillion (the first valuation milestone), Elon Musk still makes $727 million while shareholders earn returns that barely exceed inflation.
