OECD lifts U.S., global growth forecasts as economies surprise to the upside
The container accumulation took place on September 21, 2025 at the Longtan Port Container Terminal in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, Nanging, Jiangsu.
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The Economic Cooperation and Development Organization increased its global economic growth forecast on Tuesday, and many economies seem more durable than expected this year.
The OECD awaits 3.2% global growth this year compared to 2.9% expansion in June. 2026 expectations did not change at 2.9%. This will slow down from growth of 3.3% in 2024.
Growth expectations for the US rose to 1.8% for 2025 compared to 1.6% estimation of June. However, this still points to a significant decrease in the growth of 2.8% of 2024. The organization envisages 1.5% growth for the US in 2026.
“Global growth was more flexible than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many developing market economies,” the organization said in a new report. He said.
“Industrial production and trade have been supported by loading from the front before higher tariffs. Strong Investments in AI increased the results in the USA, and financial support in China was overweight without dragging the trade winds and the weakness of the real estate market.”
The tariff effect will still come
However, as OECD continued to be influenced by high policy uncertainty and high tariffs of investment and trade, he warned that “there are significant risks for economic appearance”.
The comprehensive duties on the goods entering the US, the policy changes that lasted for months, temporary pauses and US President Donald Trump’s threats entered into force in August.
Countries and regions around the world are faced with tariff rates that are 50% high in exports to the US, and some are still trying to negotiate trade frameworks.
“US bilateral tariff rates have increased in almost all countries since May. The total effective US tariff rate has increased to 19.5% at the end of August at the end of August.” He said.
“The full effects of tariff increases have not yet felt – many changes are gradually excreted in time, and companies initially absorb some tariff increases through margins – but spending elections, labor markets and consumer prices are becoming increasingly visible.”
According to the report, because some countries see higher unemployment and less work opening, the labor markets show signs of softening, and the dysflation process is flattened.
OECD expects headline inflation to be 3.4% in G20 countries in 2025 and slightly lower than 3.6% of June. For the US, inflation expectations have been revised more sharply, OECD is currently fell from a previous 3.2% estimation of a 2.7% increase in 2025.
When we look forward, more tariff increases and the return of inflationary prints were marked as two basic risks in the report of the organization, as well as increasing concerns about the possibility of reconstruction in financial markets and financial markets.
“High and variable crypto-vary values increase the risks of financial stability due to the increasing interconnection with the traditional financial system. The faster development and adoption of artificial intelligence technologies may strengthen growth expectations.”
