Orbán’s claims of Trump summit triumph mask growing doubts over his grip on power | Hungary

As Viktor Orbán said, he had an excellent meeting with Donald Trump.

After visiting the White House last week, the embattled Hungarian prime minister quickly declared victory, saying he had been granted an indefinite exemption from US sanctions on oil and gas imports from Russia. The deal would protect Hungarians from skyrocketing energy prices ahead of parliamentary elections next year and potentially increase Orbán’s chances of a 15-year extension to his rule.

Since then, Hungary and the United States have opposed the terms of the agreement, which remains only a verbal agreement between Budapest and Washington, and the White House is said to be hesitant to throw its full weight behind Orbán, who faces a potential rebellion that could bring the opposition to power.

“Orbán hopes the words will be enough to keep him above water,” a diplomatic source in Washington said, adding that Trump and his Republican allies were increasingly skeptical about the Hungarian leader’s chances in elections next April.

The dispute is over whether Hungary should temporarily or permanently suspend sanctions targeting Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which continue to supply energy to Hungary and Slovakia despite the anger of other countries in the European Union.

Hungary claimed that Trump promised them indefinite immunity, effectively allowing the country to continue importing energy from Russia. However, the administration said it exempted Hungary from sanctions for only one year.

At the press conference held last Saturday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó described the news in the press as “fake news” and said, “We received exemption from sanctions for an unlimited period of time. No one who testified differently was present at the meeting.”

The deal was important enough that Orbán gave a rare interview to the Hungarian television channel ATV. “The exemption from sanctions is valid as long as he is president there and I am prime minister here,” he said, effectively tying the deal to his support in the upcoming elections.

Describing their conversation, Orbán said that Trump told him that the USA would “exempt Hungary”. [indefinitely] Sweetening the deal, Orbán also said Trump had offered Hungary a “fiscal shield” that could be worth up to $20 billion if European Union funding was cut.

At the same meeting, Hungary loyalty He agreed to buy $600 million worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and promised to spend $700 million on U.S. military supplies.

But after Orbán made the terms of the agreement public, the Trump administration quickly made a statement: The agreement was only a verbal agreement and was only for one year.

“In the case of oil and gas pipelines, this is a one-year extension because cutting them off immediately would be deeply traumatic for their economies,” U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday.

Sources in the US state department and Congress also told the Guardian that no steps had been taken yet to legalize the deal.

“All we heard was there was a one-year waiver,” a congressional aide said. “We will receive some kind of notification from Congress, but we have not received it yet. There will be claims among pro-Orbán circles that will exaggerate the importance of these preliminary statements, both on weapons and energy. You can look back at the US-Türkiye aircraft deal, where similar things happened.”

A foreign ministry official said no official notification of the exemption had been made, but talks between the two leaders may take time to reach a concrete agreement. They said the decision could also be a decision not to impose secondary sanctions against Hungary.

The congressional aide suggested that uncertainty has become a regular feature of the Trump administration’s dealings with foreign countries and that the results of the meeting may well be “performative.”

Republicans in Congress remain skeptical about Orbán’s close relationship with Russia and his stance on national security issues, including the war in Ukraine, the aide said. “Orbán still maintains close relations with Putin and is not helping Zelenskyy,” they said.

The congressional aide noted that no details about current or upcoming arms sales to Hungary were shared.

But the real outcome for Orbán was to return to Hungary with something he and his Fidesz party could claim as victory.

“This is a victory for the Fidesz side. This is how they explain why they can keep energy prices low. This is a strong message because of the election campaign,” said Brussels-based Hungarian geopolitical analyst Botond Feledy. “The opposition is now asking whether there is $700 million. [arms deal] Is it worth it for Hungary and why has Hungary not been preparing to cut ties with Russian energy sources since 2022? “They argue that the price for Orbán’s pro-Russian stance is now being paid in the White House,” he added.

Trump’s intervention in Argentina’s elections last month appears to have provided a roadmap for other ideological allies around the world to seek US support ahead of crucial elections. But strict EU regulations will prevent the United States from making the same deal to support Hungary’s economy as it did with Argentina, according to a diplomatic source in Washington.

“The opposition already seems closer to Republican values,” the aide said, referring to opposition leader Péter Magyar, who recently praised Trump in a social media post.