Over a month into government shutdown, no end in sight – but predictions rampant

It is said that everyone is a critic.

But when it comes to shutting down the government, everyone is a prophet.

Especially when trying to determine when it might end.

“[Democrats] they are waiting to be chosen [Zohran] Mamdani, communist, soon to be mayor of New York. “I believe it will then be business as usual. If we don’t reopen this week, I believe it will happen shortly before Thanksgiving,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R.S.C., told FOX Business.

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Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, RW.Va. He also offered his own prediction.

“I believe this week could be that week,” FOX Business’ Capito said.

But Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, wasn’t so sure.

“I don’t know what the predictions are based on,” Fox’s Cornyn said. “We continue to look for some rational behavior on the part of the Democrats who shut down the government. But it was a stupid idea to begin with. And it hasn’t gotten any better since.”

Now everyone is looking for a ray of hope. It’s a clue why the government shutdown won’t deepen.

But all this week represents is another opportunity. There have been many milestones along the way, but nothing that has provided the same opportunity to end this week’s shutdown.

Yes, emergency food aid for the country’s neediest segments expired on Saturday. Air traffic is getting worse with each passing hour. Health premiums officially increased on Saturday; This is why Democrats were hesitant to fund the government in the first place.

However, none of these developments forced the parties to return to the negotiating table. That’s why some viewed Tuesday’s election as a potential turning point.

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Mamdani is the likely favorite to become New York City’s next mayor. Republicans now think the election is the reason Democrats can’t abandon government funding. They believe certain election results — a win for progressive Mamdani in New York and what Republicans hope will be defeats for moderate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., who is running for governor of Virginia, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., who is running for governor of New Jersey — will galvanize Democrats. Republicans believe such results would force Democrats to view their party as disjointed.

“Hopefully tomorrow’s election will be a change. A big change in all of this,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. “I hope that after everyone votes, they go to their rooms and make a calculation like ‘maybe we won’t have to stay on this line anymore’.”

Republicans know the shutdown will eventually end. But if it ends as soon as possible, they want to shape the narrative that “Democrats caved in because of the election results.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., expressed hope that Tuesday’s election would mark “a change.” (Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Consider that Republicans have been predicting the end of the shutdown for five weeks.

On Oct. 1, Senate Majority Rep. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., declared, “Cracks are beginning to appear in the Democratic base.”

Republicans believed Democrats would give in within days after the shutdown began.

This never happened.

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The GOP later argued that Democrats only held out until the “No to Kings” rallies on October 19 were over, meaning Democrats would have “shown they were fighting” by then.

“They won’t be able to reopen the government until after this rally,” Johnson predicted on Fox on Oct. 10.

There was no such thing.

The GOP later changed its claim that Democrats were on the verge of capitulating because federal workers’ paychecks were missing. Especially air traffic controllers.

“We’re getting to the point where the consequences of this are very real,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said Oct. 23 on Fox.

This theory also came to nothing.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said “we’re getting to the point where the consequences of this are very real.” (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)

Republicans then pinned their hopes on the next missed paycheck, including flight delays, the expiration of SNAP benefits and rising health premiums on Nov. 1.

“The Democrats are going to completely collapse,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, predicted on Fox over the weekend.

But nothing has changed.

“We will not support a partisan, Republican spending bill that continues to undermine the health care of the American people,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “That’s been our attitude. That’s going to continue to be our attitude week in and week out.”

Say what you will about the Democrats’ strategy. But they did not endure.

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Note that Republicans have been trying in vain since mid-September to persuade Senate Democrats to accept a GOP spending plan that would fund the government only through Nov. 21.

“This is now approaching a moot point,” Cornyn said. “What they will do next, I don’t know.”

Thune declared that the 21st was now a “lost” date.

Yours truly asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., what the “deadline” is for Republicans to call another vote.

“With November 21st, there’s not much [of] It’s time to resolve our differences,” Scalise replied.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., was asked about his party’s “death date” for another ballot measure. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

There are now rumors that Republicans will draft another short-term spending bill by January.

“The longer the track, the better,” Thune said. “I’m definitely listening to our colleagues and trying to figure out where the landing point will be.”

However, there is no guarantee that both chambers will be able to accept such a measure; especially if Democrats’ core demands remain unmet.

In his daily prayer to open the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black implied that lawmakers needed help resolving the crisis; because they were no closer to a solution than they were at the end of September.

“Inspire our lawmakers to unite to extinguish the fire of this government shutdown that has already burned far more than expected,” Black prayed.

It’s too unpredictable to make a solid prediction on when the shutdown will end. But if you guess enough things, you’ll eventually get something right.

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So how about this prediction:

The lockdown will end.

Finally.

And that’s really the only safe guess anyone can make right now.