Billionaire Peter Thiel is known for his co-founders Palantir TechnologiesHe runs the hedge fund Thiel Macro. sold his shares Nvidia In the third quarter, his entire portfolio is now invested in three AI stocks:
Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA) It accounts for 39%.
Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT) It accounts for 34%.
Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) It accounts for 27%.
More importantly, Thiel Macro, S&P 500 That’s a 16 percentage point increase over last year, making the hedge fund a good source of inspiration. Here’s what investors need to know about Tesla, Microsoft and Apple.
Image source: Getty Images.
Tesla lost about 5 percent market share electric cars Last year the company handed over its market leading position to the Chinese automaker BYD. But investors have largely set these developments aside because Tesla’s investment thesis now focuses on physical investments. artificial intelligence (AI) stands for autonomous driving and humanoid robots.
In autonomous driving, Tesla has a cost advantage only in its vision strategy. Fully autonomous driving software (FSD) relies solely on cameras, rather than the expensive cameras, radar and lidar array used by competitors. For example, Morgan Stanley He estimates Tesla pays 10 times less to install sensors in its vehicles than Waymo.
In autonomous robots, Tesla is building a humanoid robot named Optimus. CEO Elon Musk has said it will eventually become the company’s most important product and account for 80% of its value. Additionally, Musk argued that Tesla could grow into a $25 trillion company, representing a 1,800% increase from its $1.3 trillion market cap, as its humanoid robot disrupts the global labor market.
Here’s the problem: Tesla’s value is very difficult to determine. The electric car business is developing rapidly, but neither robotaxis nor robots are today’s main sources of income. But Grand View Research predicts robotaxi sales will grow 99% annually through 2033. Morgan Stanley predicts that sales of humanoid robots will grow 54% annually by 2035. Both are likely multitrillion-dollar markets in the making, and Tesla is a good way for risk-tolerant investors to take exposure.
Microsoft is using its strength in enterprise software and cloud computing to monetize AI. In the software space, the company has implemented generative AI co-pilots for office productivity, cybersecurity, enterprise resource planning and business intelligence suites. Monthly active users grew from 100 million in the June quarter to 150 million in the September quarter, according to CEO Satya Nadella.
In cloud computing, Microsoft Azure has gained nearly 3 percent market share since 2022 by adding data center capacity and new artificial intelligence services. Additionally, Microsoft owns a 27% stake in OpenAI and has exclusive rights to its most advanced models until 2032. This means Azure is the only public cloud that allows developers to integrate models like GTP-5 (which supports ChatGPT) into applications.
In contrast, Morgan Stanely’s latest CIO survey showed Azure as the cloud provider most likely to gain share in both general-purpose computing and generative AI workloads over the next three years. This indicates strong revenue growth in the coming years. Grand View Research predicts cloud services spending will grow 16% annually through 2033.
Wall Street expects Microsoft’s earnings to grow at 14% annually over the next three years. This puts its current valuation of 32 times earnings somewhere between expensive and very expensive. These numbers equate to a price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.3, with values above 2 generally considered expensive.
Apple consistently leads the market in smartphone sales, but the company also has a strong position in other consumer electronics categories, including tablets, smartwatches and personal computers. This success is based on design expertise spanning hardware, software and services. With tight control over the entire user experience, Apple has created a device ecosystem for which consumers are willing to pay a premium.
But there are signs that the company is losing its innovative edge. Apple hasn’t launched a major new product since AirPods in 2017, and so far it hasn’t been able to take advantage of AI. However, the company said it would use it soon. AlphabetGemini models will empower Siri with artificial intelligence capabilities. Although Apple initially plans to build the models in-house, outsourcing the technology could free up developers to focus on other AI initiatives.
In fact, Apple remains well positioned to benefit from artificial intelligence, although it has missed this opportunity so far. With more than 2.3 billion active devices worldwide, it has a huge user base from which it can sell AI subscription services. For example, the company could add a premium version of Apple Intelligence, a suite of free AI features that can transcribe, correct, and summarize text (among other features) on newer iPhones and Macs.
However, Wall Street expects Apple’s earnings to grow 10% annually over the next three years, making the current valuation of 33 times earnings seem very expensive. These figures put the PEG ratio at 3.3. Personally, I think investors can find better places to put their money.
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Trevor Jennewine He has positions in Nvidia, Palantir Technologies and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Palantir Technologies and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends BYD Company and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a feature disclosure policy.
