Reform UK support could plateau as it relies on socially conservative views, study finds | Reform UK
A large-scale research project led by leading psephologist John Curtice has found that Reformation UK is increasingly reliant on socially conservative views for political support and may therefore struggle to get its poll scores much higher.
A study of Nigel Farage’s party, conducted as part of the British Social Attitudes report, found that while Reform supporters were disproportionately more unhappy with politicians and public services, new recruits had seemingly firmer attitudes on areas such as diversity and welfare.
Curtice said that given that such views were held by only a small number of voters, it was possible that support for Reformation would stall near the current percentage range, in the mid-to-upper 20s.
“A rate of 30% does not seem like an absolute ceiling, but they are unlikely to go much above that given the nature of the campaign issues they are emphasizing,” said Curtice, a fellow at the National Center for Social Research, which has run the annual British Social Attitudes project since 1983.
“I suspect that’s probably a ceiling given its current political strategy,” he added, saying that given the current fragmentation of the party’s political support, that could still be enough to win the general election under the current first-past-the-post system.
This importance of social and cultural issues also meant that while Keir Starmer advocated the importance of improving services such as the NHS in combating populism, this alone would be unlikely to stop the rise of Reformation, according to Curtice.
He said: “Given the very sharp ideological difference, improving the country’s situation would help but may not be enough.”
This year’s survey, which asked more than 4,600 people across the UK, examined the unifying characteristics of people who said they supported the Reformation.
It found that reform supporters were more likely to vote for Brexit and were more likely to be older, male and less qualified, with just 9% of graduates backing the party compared to 40% of those with qualifications below the A-level standard.
A striking issue for reform supporters was distrust of politicians and the government’s ability to improve things; these include higher levels of dissatisfaction with the NHS and an increased tendency to agree with statements such as “Politicians talk too much and act too little.”
They were also more likely to worry about their own personal situation, especially their finances.
But attitudes towards social issues were even more striking; 67% of reform supporters believe immigrants are bad for the economy, while 75% think immigrants undermine UK culture; This is more than double the figures of 33% and 35% respectively for the general population.
Similarly, 88% of Reform supporters say equal opportunities for transgender people “go too far,” compared to 48% of the general public. 52% of reform supporters expressed the same view about lesbians, gays and bisexuals, and 51% expressed the same view about blacks and Asians. Nationally the figures for these were 27% and 17%.
Both authoritarians and disaffected people were particularly likely to support the Reformation; Among this “engagement group”, support for the party rose to 46%.
But when Curtice and his team compared the attitudes of Reform supporters who gathered in 2024 with the group interviewed for this study, they found that the increase in new hires was largely driven by ideology, not dissatisfaction with public services and the economy.
The report said: “Although dissatisfaction with healthcare and people’s finances is more common among Reform supporters, the more important reason for the party’s increase in support since 2024 appears to be its ability to appeal to those with a different ideological perspective.”
