Why Trump Thinks Xi Can Stop Russia-Ukraine War; What China Really Wants From The Chaos | World News

Trump-Xi Meeting: When US President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping sit down in Busan, South Korea, there will be much more on the table than trade agreements and tariff disputes. One question echoes through the diplomatic corridors in Washington, Ukraine and Russia: Can Beijing help stop the war in Ukraine?

In the military workshops of Kiev, warfare became inseparable from Chinese technology. Engineers acknowledge that nearly every component inside a front-line drone—from cameras to chips to fiber optics—can be traced to factories in Shenzhen or Guangdong.

Ukrainian defense experts say that if Beijing decides to restrict these exports tomorrow, both Moscow and Kiev will immediately feel the shock.

Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Chinese factories supply almost 80 percent of the drones, circuits and dual-use electronics that support Russia’s battlefield operations. The flow of components has provided vital technological support to Moscow’s military, helping it offset Western sanctions.

Aware of this advantage, Trump now wants to draw Beijing to the diplomatic chessboard. Before leaving for South Korea, he told aides that he had asked China for help “on the Russia issue”; This signaled Xi’s hope that he could quietly push Vladimir Putin towards the negotiating table.

For Trump, who canceled his meetings with his Russian counterpart a few days ago, the Busan summit offers a chance to reposition the United States as the power that can ensure peace through China. His team believes Beijing’s dominance over Moscow’s trade and technology lifelines could be decisive if Xi chooses to use it.

The Ukrainian administration also sees the same possibility. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on Washington to force Beijing to cut energy deals with Russia, saying it would “benefit all of us” if China’s imports of Russian oil and gas were reduced. Kiev sees China’s economic weight as the only lever that can truly put pressure on the Kremlin.

But behind this hope lies a geopolitical paradox. Beijing’s purchases of cheap oil, gas and raw materials from Russia helped alleviate Moscow’s war economy. Analysts in Ukraine say that if Trump’s new sanctions targeting Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil shrink Moscow’s global footprint, Chinese state firms could fill the void, expanding Beijing’s reach into Central Asia and Africa.

For Xi, this outcome may be more valuable than any symbolic peace gesture. Without China’s financial support and commercial access, Russia’s war machine would grind to a halt, experts close to Ukrainian policymaking circles say. But they also say Beijing has little reason to give Trump a diplomatic victory, especially at a time when tensions over trade, semiconductors and Taiwan are already straining relations.

Beijing insists it remains neutral in the conflict. Official statements say China is a “responsible power” that has called for peace while strengthening economic cooperation with Russia behind closed doors. Strategists see long-term benefit in maintaining the current stalemate: a weakened but surviving Russia leaves Western attention divided and NATO resources stretched.

The “war freeze” logic now appeals to both Beijing and Washington. Analysts in Kiev say neither side wants Moscow to achieve a decisive victory that would embolden Putin or a complete defeat that could destabilize China’s vast northern borders. A controlled stalemate that avoids escalation but allows diplomacy to proceed slowly may be the unspoken goal of both capitals.

This scenario is dangerous for Ukraine. A frozen war means waiting for Russia to rebuild, rearm and return. To counter this, Kiev is strengthening ties with the European Union, Turkey and even Pakistan (countries that can balance relations with both the West and Beijing).

Meanwhile, Putin is preparing his own proposals. He is believed to have presented ideas for joint Arctic trade routes, expanded energy pipelines and even nuclear fuel cooperation that could interest both Washington and Beijing after the war.

For Trump, success in Busan will depend on whether Xi believes ending the war is compatible with China’s long game. For Xi, the choice is more strategic than moral: weigh the benefits of peace against the power of influence.

If China closes its factory doors to Russia’s supply lines, the war could lose its engine within weeks. But if that keeps them open, Trump’s quick quest for peace may end up being just a headline.

Either way, when the two leaders meet in Busan, the world will see whether the path to peace in Ukraine runs, albeit quietly, through Beijing.