PGA TOUR: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2026 best bets, ‘One-and-Done’ pick for TPC Craig Ranch
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“No days (weeks) off” is my mantra when it comes to betting on the PGA TOUR. And man, you gotta be a golf gambler to bet CJ CUP Byron Nelson This week at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.
This course would be brutal if native Texans Scottie Scheffler (reigning Byron Nelson champion) and Jordan Spieth didn’t want to play in their home state.
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Shamefully, since Scottie won last year’s Byron Nelson race by eight shots for -31 points, millions of dollars worth of renovations were invested in TPC Craig Ranch this off-season to make the course even more difficult.
The fairways are now Zoysiagrass, the roughs are Bermudagrass, and the greens are Bentgrass. Bermuda is one of the hardest grasses to hit and the ball rests on Zoysiagrass. So there is a bigger penalty for missing the fairway this week. Curled greens are firmer and quicker, making them harder to put down.
However, the average win score in recent Byron Nelsons is roughly -26, and that would still be a success score. bird festival. With this in mind, I am not spending units (u) on placement bets as this event is very volatile. Here are my best bets for TPC Craig Ranch this week.
2026 THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting card
The odds below are based on previous bets I have placed on the golfers listed below. It is subject to change.
- Pierceson Coody +4579 in Kalshi (0.44u)
- Michael Thorbjornsen +4800 in Kalshi (0.42u)
- Davis Thompson +5400 in Kalshi (0.37u)
- Tom Kim +7200 on DraftKings (0.28u)
- Michael Brennan +7800 in Kalshi (0.26u)
- Jonathan Vegas +23400 in Kalshi (0.09u)
Pierceson Coody
Coody, a native Longhorn and University of Texas graduate, needs to be familiar with playing in windy, hot Texas weather conditions. He looked great at the start of the season, struggled in March and started to recover in April and May.
Coody failed to qualify for The Masters but finished T16 at the 2026 RBC Heritage, T38 at the Cadillac Championship and T24 at the Truist Championship (all special events).
Pierceson Coody got out of a tight spot during the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open event at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course in San Diego. (Abe Arredondo-Imagn Images)
Let’s face it, Coody missed the cut at last week’s PGA Championship. But he finished 14th on the field in the first two rounds, and Aronimink Golf Club (host of the 2026 PGA Championship) has Bent greens, as does TPC Craig Ranch.
Last year Coody finished second to Byron Nelson in the Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-tee (OTT) race and finished T25 at 14-under-par. He ranks 22nd on TOUR this season in approach shots from 200-plus yards near the hole.
If he combines his extended performance this year with his drive at TPC Craig Ranch and his appearance at the PGA Championship last week, Coody will have a chance to win the 2026 Byron Nelson.
Michael Thorbjornsen
I lost a lot of money for this kid but I’m not losing faith in his potential and these are great odds compared to the strength of the field and his prices in previous tournaments.
Michael Thorbjornsen hits a shot from the fairway during the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. (Abe Arredondo-Imagn Images)
The 2024 PGA TOUR University winner had a shorter chance of winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+4000), a special event featuring the best players on TOUR, and the Texas Children’s Houston Open (+3000), which also featured a tougher field.
He was T33 at last year’s Byron Nelson and earned strikes by hitting the ball (drive and approach). Over the last 20 rounds, Thorbjornsen is ranked 10th in my model. Bet on the Number because he pops the ball OTT and is great with his long irons.
davis thompson
The Georgia Bulldog didn’t qualify for the majors or signing events, so it was “out of sight, out of mind.” In his last two starts, Thompson finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T13 at the Myrtle Beach Classic.
Davis sits third in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) heading into the round of 16 behind Scheffler and fourth betting favorite Brooks Koepka. Betsperts Golf.
Davis Thompson watches his approach shot on the 17th hole at the 2026 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. (Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images)
Thompson could be one to bet on when he has good starting form, as Davis finished T9 at the 2022 US Open and T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in two starts before winning the John Deere Classic that year.
Like Byron Nelson, John Deere is also played on another easy TPC course. At the end of the day, I clicked on Thompson because he’s only 26 and siphonI believe he still has a bright future in golf.
Tom Kim
This is another talented golfer who I “buy his fall” on. Kim has 10 professional wins, including three on the PGA TOUR, and has competed in major events and majors. He’s only 23 and I’m not ready to give him up.
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In his last start, the South Korean athlete finished T6 in Myrtle Beach and T18 in the Valspar Championship, four starts behind. Despite his struggles over the last two seasons, Kim remains elite at finesse and accurate with his driver.
michael brennan
Brennan is third in my model Betsperts Golf. He ranks third on TOUR this year in driving distance and sixth in approach shots over 200 meters. Brennan won strokes with his driver in five consecutive starts, including one special event (RBC Heritage) and two majors (The Masters and PGA Championship).
Wake Forest Demon Deacon burst onto the scene during the 2025 FedExCup Fall event, winning the Bank of Utah Championship by four strokes on another easy, driver-heavy Tom Weiskopf course with bent greens. Brennan hasn’t been in the mix since, but it’s a great price and, of course, affordable.
jonathan vegas
The price (234 to 1) explains the bet pretty well. Vegas has won on TOUR four times and showed some life at last week’s PGA Championship, where he finished second in SG:T2G. Unfortunately, Vegas lost the most strikeouts (-7.62) and finished T44.
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However, one of his four wins was the 3M Open in 2024 at another easy, rider-heavy TPC course (Twin Cities). Vegas’ best finish this year was T14 at the Houston Open, and his third-best finish last season was T13 at Byron Nelson.
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THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2026 ‘One and Done’ Pick: Pierceson Coody
Mayo Cup Season Rankings: 4,318 with $3,704,338.
I’m playing for honor at this point because I’m done with any hope of making money on this racket other than a crazy heater. “Competition strategy” and “opposing games” are no longer of any importance. I say this because I’m putting Coody in here even though he’s going to be popular this week.
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