Oil set for steepest quarterly loss since 2020 as traders focus on US-Iran talks
By Anushree Mukherjee
June 30 (Reuters) – As oil prices headed for their biggest quarterly loss since the Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020 on Tuesday, investors focused on possible U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid a tense temporary truce in the four-month war.
Brent August crude futures due Tuesday were up 0.21%, or 15 cents, to $73.30 a barrel at 13:02 GMT. But the contract was on track for a third straight monthly decline, down nearly 20% so far in June.
The more actively traded September contract rose 0.61%, or 45 cents, to $74.36 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.51%, or 36 cents, to $71.11 a barrel in August. But the contract is down nearly 19% for the second month in a row so far in June.
Brent fell nearly 38% in the quarter, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell nearly 30%. Both Brent and WTI prices are close to where they were trading just before the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran.
“I wouldn’t say the market has priced in a risk premium, but with the increase in ships coming out of the Gulf, previously stranded ships have become available, creating a temporary wave of new supply,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Morgan Stanley said they are currently modeling an implied global oil market surplus of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2027.
Senior US envoys arriving in Doha will not hold a high-level meeting with Iran, a Qatari official said on Tuesday, casting doubt on the progress of efforts to bring a permanent end to the Iran war and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Instead, technical talks will be held this week on issues such as regional security, which could be escalated to a higher level later, Majed Al Ansari, spokesman for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told a media briefing.
Uncertainty over whether the two sides will meet has highlighted the fragility of a June 17 agreement to halt hostilities that has disrupted global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and presented a political challenge for US President Donald Trump ahead of congressional elections in November.
Analysts cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the start of the Iran war, after five months of gains, as the reopening of the strait eases concerns about prolonged supply disruptions, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s SOMO offered broad discounts on its official selling prices to encourage futures buyers to lift Basra crude from its terminal in the Middle East Gulf in July, according to trade sources and a document reviewed by Reuters.
(Reporting by Robert Harvey in London, Anushree Mukherjee and Pranav Mathur in Bengaluru and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Editing by Alex Lawler, Susan Fenton and Jan Harvey)
