Polling guru says ‘no doubt’ Reform’s support is falling as Nigel Farage renews attack on YouGov
Britain’s top pollster has said there is “no doubt” that support for Reform UK has fallen after Nigel Farage was embroiled in a row with leading pollster YouGov over claims he underestimated the party’s popularity.
Last week Mr Farage accused the firm seen as Britain’s most influential political pollster of being “deceptive” in the way it presented surveys of voting intention; This accusation prompted YouGov to agree to publish more data alongside the survey.
The latest YouGov poll, released on Tuesday after the dispute broke out, found support for Reform had risen two points to 25 per cent. But Mr Farage insisted the poll was still below his party’s actual support, as he disputed suggestions his support was “slipping” at a press conference on Tuesday morning.
As the debate intensified, Professor Sir John Curtice pointed out that support for the right-wing party was decreasing when looking at poll averages in the UK. An Ipsos Mori poll, also released Tuesday, showed it down two points to 28 percent.
Meanwhile in Scotland, the Survation poll for the Scottish Parliament elections in a few weeks’ time showed Reform falling two points to third place behind Labour, on 17 per cent, while Labor was up two to 18 per cent.
Prof Curtice and other experts noted an average drop of two points on Reform in just one month; This was well down from last year’s peak of more than 30 percent.
he said Independent: “There’s no doubt that support for reform has fallen. The 10 pollster average this month is 27, down two points from February.”
He added: “From what I can see, I think it’s harder to get support from everyone.”
YouGov ranked the party lower than rival pollsters because it polled people on how they would vote in their constituency rather than which party they supported overall. He insists that this method produces more accurate results by accounting for tactical voting.
Speaking at a press conference in Westminster, Mr Farage said: “What was the gold standard of the British polling industry… I see 90 per cent of the share price disappearing, which tells you quite a lot about the public’s belief and confidence in their current methodologies.”
Disputing claims Reform are losing support, he went on: “If you look across the six or seven British Polling Council, regular companies, we are up over the course of the last two weeks.
“Last year’s May election led to a bounce. We bounced back a little bit and are now almost where we were seven or eight months ago.”
The reform has greatly contributed to their momentum gaining a large lead in the polls that have been held for several months. Any decline undermines their claims that they are on track to become the next government.
Lord Robert Hayward also noted declining support for the Reformation in his poll situation report ahead of the annual local elections.
He said: “All pollsters show Reform percentages falling – Wikipedia UK general election polls are recovering and Politico’s own polls show the same, with Nigel Farage unsurprisingly not citing this as supporting evidence.”
Another leading pollster at The Week in Polls, Dr. Mark Pack came to a similar conclusion.
He said there was consistently a four-point gap between YouGov and other pollsters, but the figures fell from 29 per cent overall to an average of 27 per cent.
He said: “Other pollsters may put Reform higher, but the common picture across all is that Reform is falling in the polls.”
Following Mr Farage and Reform’s claims, a YouGov spokesman said: “Our headline voting intention figures are based on how people say they will vote in their constituency, adjusted for how likely they are to vote and do not know how to use MRP.” [multi-level regression and post-stratification].
“We switched to asking specifically about constituencies ahead of the 2024 general election and our post-election review found this significantly improved our accuracy as it was more effective at identifying tactical voting and how people actually voted.”
