Trump promises ‘largest tax refund season of all time.’ What to expect
President Donald Trump addresses the nation in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House in Washington on December 17, 2025.
Doug Mills | Afp | Getty Images
Trump’s speech comes as the president’s approval ratings on inflation and the cost of living are falling, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, which surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults in early December.
According to the survey, while about 66 percent of those surveyed in December disapproved of Trump’s fight against inflation and the cost of living, this rate was 62 percent in October.
As many people feel the pinch of higher prices during the holiday season, here’s what you need to know about tax refunds in 2026.
Many will see ‘larger paybacks’ in 2026
When filing 2025 tax returns in 2026, “many people will see larger refunds than in recent years,” says Erica York, vice president for federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. wrote in an analysis on Wednesday.
Trump’s “big beautiful bill” enacted in July included many tax changes retroactive to 2025, including a larger standard deduction; more generous maximum child tax credit; a higher limit for state and local tax deductions; $6,000 tax credit for seniors; and deductions for auto loan interest, tip income, and overtime pay.
These seven provisions would reduce individual income taxes by $144 billion in 2025, according to Tax Foundation estimates. But the IRS did not adjust withholding tableswhich tells employers how much they should receive from workers’ wages.
“Instead of getting the benefit of tax deductions gradually through higher wages over the course of the year, most taxpayers will get them all at once when they file their return,” York wrote.
Who might see a bigger payback?
Experts say your 2026 tax refund may depend on what provisions affect your individual situation.
While the higher standard deduction, larger child tax credit and senior tax credit will have an impact on many taxpayers, other provisions, such as deductions for tip and overtime income, will affect smaller groups of filers.
For many, Trump’s legislation is an extension of the tax cuts enacted in 2017, says Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation: I told CNBC before.
“The basic structure of this will be pretty much the same tax code that you’ve been used to for the last eight years,” he said.
An Oct. 31 memo from Piper Sandler predicted an “extraordinarily large refund season,” with middle- and upper-income taxpayers likely to benefit the most.
As of October 17 average payback For individual returns, it was $3,052 in the 2025 filing season, up slightly from $3,004 in 2024, according to the latest IRS data.
