Trump’s plan for Gaza is ambitious but peace is far from guaranteed | Gaza

At first glance, the 20 -point plan summarized by President Trump and accepted by Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be more likely to terminate the two -year conflict in Gaza more than anything we have ever seen. Trump has sought a lot of political capital in bringing peace to the Middle East after thousands of years. The visible deep and wide regional support and apparently the Israeli Prime Minister has support.

However, this is a less detailed road map of an envelope draft that has the chance to disappear evenly while reaching the desired destination.

First, it is unlikely that Hamas gently looks at a plan that says that Hamas should openly leave all or most of his arms and follow Trump as a technocratic “Peace Council” headed by Trump. For the members of the militant Islamist organization who accepts the existence of Israel together, an amnesty proposal is not very attractive even if he can demand a loan for help to enter the devastated Palestinian region given by the Group, the UN and the Red Crescent.

Can Qatar or others bend Hamas hard enough to temporarily condemn a program that will eliminate the organization in Gaza as a political and military force? Will its leaders convinced that 50 -proportioned Israeli hostages organized by the group are a responsibility for providing an excuse for Israel to continue the campaign? Will Hamas military commanders in the region be compatible with the political leaders in Istanbul? None of this is certain.

The Arab countries say that they commit Gaza to horror, Trump is a big and positive step if it is true. However, there is no indication of what this means in practice. Are they all soldiers or money? So far, none of them promised to send troops to complete what a complex and dangerous task like Hell. Organizing this will take months and offer plenty of opportunities for fighting and charges.

The connection of Israel’s withdrawal to the speed and scope of demilitarization is also directed towards Israel’s advantage. Any delivered land was flattened by Israel’s brutal attack. Slow withdrawal costs are very small. Israel can eventually retreat to an environment, but it is unclear how long it can take. Published maps are uncertain. All this is a long way than Hamas’s demands in the latest negotiations. Nothing approaching the Palestinian state has been promised.

If Netanyahu and Trump do not continue as they wish, and if the Arab countries cannot force Hamas to do their will, the Israeli army will take action again with the US support. Hamas, after delivering the hostages – within 72 hours after an agreement – there is very little to stop Israel’s promising. In March, Israel promised to move to a second planned stage of the two -month ceasefire, which could lead to a definite end of the conflict.

And yes, the idea of ​​leading and building regional normalization to Abraham agreements, but the last two years showed how heavy this possibility was in balance for Israeli policy makers.

With the spread of deepened and anti -war emotions at home, Netanyahu may have calculated that more war will bring incremental gains with significant cost and now that it is the moment of victory.

Now it starts a new campaign. Netanyahu, who was imprisoned for corruption charges during the conflict, made his foundation on political power a basic target. This time, the government thinks that the coalition, which can leave the coalition and drop the government, can take the opposition of the far -right members. He may call his bluffs or have numbers in the Israeli National Assembly Knesset to protect power. Despite the bad demonstrations in the surveys, there must be new elections within a year he can win.

For now, Trump has put on his plan to sign in his plan, except for one of the main actors in this terrible conflict, or at least a little sketchy aspects of collective geopolitical satnavs. This is a success. However, there is still a very difficult work: Even if Hamas persuasion, there are a series of details that will be reached and later to be arranged and then somehow applied. This is a journey that can take too long and is a safe and comfortable one, all kinds of arrival is far from being guaranteed.