Prediction markets head into basketball season after Super Bowl high
A basketball player finds nothing but net during practice before a 2024 NCAA Tournament game at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh.
Charles LeClaire | Reuters
Prediction markets saw strong results from the Super Bowl, but that was just an appetizer for a banquet of sporting events expected to drive increased volumes in event contracts in 2026.
According to a report from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower, Kalshi reached record downloads during Super Bowl week, up 1,544% compared to the same period last year. The company said the number of daily active users increased by more than 1,100% to nearly 2 million on the day of the big game.
That was nearly three times the number of daily active users at BetMGM sportsbook, which it co-owns. MGM and Entain, which grew 81% to 680,000 daily active users. Polymarket reported 59,000 daily active users and 264% growth over the previous year.
More than $1 billion was traded on Kalshi for the Super Bowl, up 2,700%, according to the company. Consumers are intrigued by having multiple trading options for gaming in one place, founder and CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC on Tuesday.
“Our cultural markets were huge this weekend. You know, ‘What [Bad] “The value of Bunny’s trade was over $100 million,” he said.
Sports drives the action and profits, although prediction markets allow users to purchase event contracts for a wide range of financial, weather, pop culture and other events.
robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev is pushing back against investors’ concerns that the Super Bowl is as good as it gets for trading in sports prediction markets.
“What we’re seeing actually surprises us,” Tenev said in his company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Tuesday. “For example, in January, NBA contracts surpassed the NFL in commercial activity on our platform.”
Major sporting events continue with the Winter Olympics offering a variety of betting options until February 22. This weekend, fans will also take notice at NBA All-Star Weekend.
March brings college basketball madness, and the NCAA Tournament kicks off with the Selection on Sunday, March 15. The entire tournament usually brings in more gambling dollars than the Super Bowl.
And then there’s the World Cup, which starts in mid-June with 104 matches.
Kalshi has been aggressive in marketing, outperforming Polymarket in the United States by nearly 19 times and DraftKings by nearly 35%, according to Sensor Tower’s estimates.
Still, American giants continue to dominate sports betting. According to Sensor Tower data, DraftKings reached 5 million daily active users for the Super Bowl, while FanDuel reached 4.2 million.
Sports betting market leaders FanDuel CEOs and DraftKings Both told CNBC just before the game that they had not seen any cannibalization in their traditional sports betting business. Instead, they see a real opportunity with sports and event conventions in states that have not legalized sports betting.
Tenev said event contracts are “the fastest growing business in the company’s history.” Robinhood reported a 300% increase in “other revenue,” largely from event contracts.
And growth is accelerating. Robinhood reported 12 billion event contracts in 2025, and 2026 has seen 4 billion contracts so far.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes a minority investment.
