Prediction markets show slide in ballot measure odds
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) on February 13, 2026 in Munich, Germany.
Liesa Johannssen | Reuters
The odds of the proposed billionaire tax appearing on the ballot in California fell from 88% to 35.5% last week on prediction markets platform Kalshi.
The decline came after reports Policy And Bloomberg News Gov. Gavin Newsom is pushing to block the proposed tax from appearing on the November ballot before the June 25 deadline.
offerService Employees International Union – Backed by the United Healthcare Workers West, calls for a one-time 5% tax on a billionaire’s net worth.
Unity argues that taxed billionaires will support the state’s healthcare system after massive federal funding cuts.
“The tax will only be paid by Californians with more than $1 billion in wealth, which is about 200 people with combined wealth of $2 trillion,” according to the union’s statement. website states.
The union added that more than 1.5 million signatures from California voters were submitted to get the billionaires’ tax bill on the ballot. Only 875,000 signatures are required.
Newsom’s reported opposition to the billionaire tax measure comes as he is seriously considering a presidential bid. On Monday, the governor accused President Donald Trump of ordering the Justice Department to investigate him and his wife.
In a post on X, Newsom said Trump was driven to target him because “I’m considering running for President.”
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