External uncertainties pose risks to growth, speedy conclusion of trade talks present upside potential: RBI MPC minutes

The Reserve Bank of India said in its Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes that a rapid conclusion of trade talks could provide support to growth, although ongoing uncertainties continue to pose downside risks to the outlook.

“While external uncertainties continue to pose downside risks to the outlook, ongoing investments must be concluded quickly.”

In the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, it was stated that trade and investment negotiations had an upward potential.

The Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Friday raised India’s GDP forecast for fiscal 2025-26 to 7.3%, compared to the previous estimate of 6.8%. The central bank raised its growth forecast for the 3rd quarter of FY26 from 6.4% to 7.0%. The forecast for the 4th quarter of the fiscal year was also increased from 6.2% to 6.5%. Similarly, the forecast for the first quarter of FY2027 was increased from 6.4% to 6.7%, while growth for the second quarter of FY27 was predicted to be 6.8%.