Rare earths stocks boom as the global critical mineral race heats up
A wheel loader transports ore to a crusher at the MP Materials rare earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, United States, January 30, 2020.
Steve Marcus | Reuters
The emergence of critical minerals as a new arena of geopolitical competition has coincided with a dizzying rise in US-listed rare earth mining stocks.
Despite the tapering of gains in recent weeks, shares of Critical Metals are up 241% in the past three months, while NioCorp Developments, Energy Fuels, and Idaho Strategic Resources are all up well over 100% in the same period.
The eye-watering gains have been even more remarkable since the beginning of the year. Energy Fuels’ share price quadrupled in the first 10 months of the year, while NioCorp Developments’ shares nearly quintupled.
Rare earth elements stand out as an important bargaining chip in the ongoing geopolitical competition between the world’s two largest economies, the USA and China.
Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, which owns one of the world’s largest rare earth deposits in southern Greenland, described the rally of US-listed rare earth miners as evidence of a major market boom.
“This is how I talk about it, so there have been four big booms. You had the gold boom in the 19th century, you had the oil boom in the 20th century, you had the tech boom in the early 21st century, and now you’ve got the rare earths boom,” Sage told CNBC by phone.
“But the explosion of rare earth elements will come. It will power all of the above.”
We are moving from the philosophy of ‘filling the gap’ with imports to ‘digging the gap’ domestically or regionally.
audun martinsen
Head of supply chain research at Rystad Energy
Rare earths refer to the 17 elements in the periodic table that have an atomic structure that gives them special magnetic properties. These materials are vital components of a wide range of modern technologies, from everyday electronics such as smartphones to electric vehicles and military equipment.
China, which has a near monopoly on rare earth elements, has recently threatened to expand export controls on the elements to further strengthen its dominance in the supply chain. However, after a face-to-face meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday, Beijing agreed to postpone export controls for a year on October 9.
US-listed rare earth stocks rebounded on the news, but analysts remain skeptical about whether the apparent trade truce will provide long-term relief.
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
“As with all booms, there were a lot of oil companies that couldn’t find oil and a lot of gold companies that couldn’t find gold. And I’m sure there will be a lot of rare earth companies that won’t make it either, because when there’s a boom, there’s excitement. And when there’s excitement, there’s overexuberance in investing,” said Critical Metals’ Sage.
“This is not a straight rise. It’s a jagged line, but if you find the right project in the right place and have the right partners, the trend is in the right direction,” he added.
‘A much bigger and longer superbike’
Kevin Das, senior technical advisor at Australia-based rare earth explorer New Frontier Minerals, agreed with Sage’s description of the rare earth market boom, while also acknowledging the possibility of a pullback in stock prices.
“People are saying we’re bullish on a bigger superbike, and there’s some evidence behind that that commodity prices have been low for a while and there’s been underinvestment. And now, with the advent of artificial intelligence… we’re going to see a much bigger and taller superbike,” Das told CNBC by phone.
Das drew parallels with the Biden administration Support for clean energy projects and the Trump administration’s support for rare earths coincided with a rise in lithium-related stocks.
Shares of Critical Metals in the last three months.
“In the last nine to 10 months that Trump was in power, he talked about annexing Greenland, he talked about doing a deal with Ukraine for rare earths, and then the real highlight was this equity deal with MP Materials,” Das said.
“So I think the track in the next two to three years will be very productive,” he added.
But not everyone is so optimistic about the outlook for rare earth stocks.
Rystad Energy head of supply chain research Audun Martinsen said the recent rise in stock prices reflected a mix of geopolitical tension, strategic policy support and speculative momentum.
“Rare earths have clearly moved to the center of global industrial strategy, vital for defence, EVs and clean energy, but this looks more like the early stages of a structural shift than a mature ‘fourth boom,’” Martinsen told CNBC via email.
Neodymium was sold on Wednesday, May 5, 2010, at the Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co. in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, China. It was exhibited in the factory.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“We are moving away from a philosophy of ‘filling the gap through imports’ towards ‘mining the gap’ domestically or regionally,” he continued. “It will be a long, expensive and challenging road forward, as adequate, cost-effective sources and full control of the diversity of items are complex.”
Clean energy transition
Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia University, said two clear factors are at work, one structural and the other political, as global competition to secure supplies of critical minerals intensifies.
“Structural: No matter what political attempts to stop or derail things, the transition to clean energy is happening and accelerating, and yes, it depends on a number of critical minerals whose prices are bound to rise,” Wagner told CNBC via email.
For example, stating that China is the low-cost supplier of most of these minerals, Wagner stated that the mining dominance of the Asian giant is by no means a coincidence.
“Beijing has invested heavily in green industrial policy for years, focusing on a fully integrated supply chain. This is where politics comes into play,” Wagner said.
“Some initiatives to address onshore supply chains are perfectly justified for national security and other reasons, and these initiatives will increase prices and stocks of U.S. mining companies. Of course, some of the things we see are just current policies or unstable trade wars and the like,” he added.
