Reliance remains mum even as Trump announces ‘historic’ $300 billion U.S. refinery deal

Although US President Donald Trump announced on social media (Truth Social) on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 that Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) will invest in a new refinery in the US and described it as a “historic” deal worth $ 300 billion, RIL remained silent throughout the day.

The company did not make any announcements and did not provide any information to the stock exchanges, increasing speculation about the veracity of Mr. Trump’s claims.

On a day when the stock market was down nearly 2%, RIL stock closed 1.27% lower at ₹1,391.10 on the BSE.

According to Mr. Trump’s social media post, the refinery will be built in Brownsville, Texas, and this will be the first new refinery in the USA in the last 50 years.

Describing it as the cleanest refinery in the world, Trump said it would revitalize US markets and strengthen national security.

Following the announcement, JP Margan said in a note that this refinery could focus on profitability rather than capex intensity.

“Reliance is reportedly planning to invest $300 billion in the US to open a new refinery in Texas. We estimate the initial capex is a small fraction of this target and it is possible that Reliance will involve partners to reduce the overall capex outflow,” he said.

“We believe that securing profitability for such a project remains important and potential government incentives could be supportive,” he added.

A typical 30-million-ton refinery (likely that size for the first phase of the project) could hypothetically cost $60 billion, according to J.P. Morgan’s estimates.

“Capital expenditure could be higher if associated petrochemical plants are planned for a project of this size. Considering the size, Reliance is likely to collaborate with local partners and assume 50% stake with a mix of 30-70% equity-debt financing, we estimate RIL’s implied equity investment could be $10 billion,” JP Morgan said.